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Last post Author Topic: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten  (Read 117710 times)

wraith808

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #750 on: September 24, 2020, 11:52 AM »
I'd dispute that figure above, which is why I don't really count it as already there currently
Why would you dispute it?

It ought to be a simple calculation. Investors paying $9m for ? = $200m valuation means ?  = 4.5% of the enterprise, post investment. Always possible it was actually $9m for 5% of the business as it was, in which case the calculation ought to have been (9x20)+9 = 189 which is still pretty close.
Not seen anything about other conditions, options etc though I'd expect there are some. But it's hard cash he's already spending.

You can't get a better test of value than people paying hard cash for something.

Yes, you can.  Remember the DotCom bust?  That was caused by that kind of thinking.  Basically, you look at revenues over time to see the worth of a company.  Though they haven't published their revenues, the numbers required for a 200m valuation don't add up, especially since they just started seriously charging for the product.  This is more speculative than based in any sort of concrete market theory.

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #751 on: September 24, 2020, 12:15 PM »
central banks are pumping money into economy like crazy
Yes, though not so much in Europe.
The key is that they are probably just printing that money, but they've arranged it so that the money can be unprinted thereby creating an uncertainty about the value of the money in the future.

The mechanisms have meant that a great deal has flooded directly into the markets, so valuations have risen in money terms.
The value of money has dropped, but most people haven't realised it yet from an everyday life point of view. And they may never see the usual consequence since the deflationary pulse is so strong. So most prices could stay about the same.
And in Europe even medium term interest rates are negative.

The rise in prices is justified to the extent that money is worth less, so the businesses must be worth relatively more. But there seem to be a lot of new investors who don't know what they're doing. They are acting like the typical private investor in Chinese markets.

And many companies are only staying 'afloat' because of the sea of cheap debt holding them up and central banks' money keeping the wheels of the economy turning.

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #752 on: September 24, 2020, 12:29 PM »
you look at revenues over time to see the worth of a company
If you try to do this, you will end up losing money.
Sales are part of the picture.
Profits, if you are able to work out what they really are, make another part.
Assets a third.

But if you buy a business, you will never get the sales or profits it made in prior years. You only have a right to what will happen in the future,  so you have to predict.

The stock market, especially tech, had been too high for a few years before the dot.com bust. Buying at the top always loses you money for a few years however well you try and calculate value. Despite that, if you'd held a balanced portfolio of tech stocks then till now, do you really think you'd be poorer now?

The thing to remember about emerging industries is that it is very hard to predict which businesses will be the big winners. Some will stutter,  some will meander, but most will fail.

The Roam valuation is based simply on an evaluation that they might be a big winner. $9m is nothing to get in at the base level. The investors will be aware it will probably fail, but they know that the small number of bug winners more than pays for the losers.

wraith808

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #753 on: September 24, 2020, 02:31 PM »
you look at revenues over time to see the worth of a company
If you try to do this, you will end up losing money.
Sales are part of the picture.
Profits, if you are able to work out what they really are, make another part.
Assets a third.

But if you buy a business, you will never get the sales or profits it made in prior years. You only have a right to what will happen in the future,  so you have to predict.

The stock market, especially tech, had been too high for a few years before the dot.com bust. Buying at the top always loses you money for a few years however well you try and calculate value. Despite that, if you'd held a balanced portfolio of tech stocks then till now, do you really think you'd be poorer now?

The thing to remember about emerging industries is that it is very hard to predict which businesses will be the big winners. Some will stutter,  some will meander, but most will fail.

The Roam valuation is based simply on an evaluation that they might be a big winner. $9m is nothing to get in at the base level. The investors will be aware it will probably fail, but they know that the small number of bug winners more than pays for the losers.


I know how it works, working at a financial reporting institution.  I'm just saying that the 200m valuation is high based on the fact that we do know.  And standards indicate that it is a percentage of the sales+assets-liabilities over a period of time.  It's a standard and known fact.

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #754 on: September 24, 2020, 04:13 PM »
I'm also thinking about switching my rooms from tags into folders.
The original reason for tags was flexibility and speed. And that it would be most effective to keep everything in one folder (vault).

But I've been learning to appreciate a lot of value in Obsidian's capability with nested vaults. This means that I can have everything in one overarching vault, but still keep the nested sub-vaults separate. And i can have a couple of vaults in the middle too. And I can work either in a sub-vault or the overarching vault,  or both together in separate windows. Maximal linking in the overarching vault. Graphs to be viewed separately in each vault.

Just an idea until I've tested it out more. Has the advantage that folders map better on to my room analogy. Also removes the tension between these tags (strict categories) and all my other tags which are 'fuzzy'.

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #755 on: September 25, 2020, 12:14 PM »
Hoard Archive (the large reserve pool)
Inbox Vestibule (small pool ready to power processing)
Sources Library (archive that's been processed in the production of Notes)
Scriptorium (notes and all other unpublished material I have written myself,  essentially work in progress at all stages)
Reading Room (my published work)
Attics (processed items not considered worth keeping in Library -  I realised that simply putting them in Archive (unprocessed) or throwing them away completely might mean that they were processed again in future because they give initial impression of being interesting).
Chapter House - for anything requiring action: todo lists, emails etc.

I decided to trial a switch to folders. Some advantages, some disadvantages  - but bulk changes are easy with a Text Editor. So there'll be no problem if I decide to switch back.

After some experience with the system, I've decided to extend it. Mostly to include more mundane issues: correspondence, todos & etc. Works best in the system because they sometimes need linking and it keeps everything in one place.

I've also given a lot of thought to names. It's important that I know instantly what a folder is for - so nothing I don't instantly recognise - and the physical analogies work well for me. They also need the right vibe because that helps me work better. Its a very personal set of preferences.

Papyri - all the notes, research etc
Vestibule - limited size space for new notes;
Library - all fully processed useful notes;
Archive - unprocessed notes squeezed out of the Vestibule because of limited space;
Attics - fully processed nites which have outlived their usefulness, or more frequently were deemed unhelpful from the start.

Vivarium - my own writing and research; creative, academic, practical etc.
Scriptorium - writing in progress ; includes all the planning etc.
Reading Room  - completed and published work
Bibliothekai - unattached or unused bits of writing

The Rolls - administrative records and documentation
Chancery - written records and correspondence
Exchequer  - financial records and correspondence
Chapter House - todo lists, emails etc - stuff for immediate or imminent action
Treasury - a separate secure vault only stored locally. This is for confidential information.

Nalanda - all the sources

Canary Wharf - anything work related. This vault is local only.

Explanation of name choice, if anyone is interested:
Spoiler
Papyri - it's the plural of papyrus, but mostly reminds me of the House of Papyri in Herculaneum.
Vestibule - a small room or antechamber in great houses and other buildings. Always small.
Library  - I  imagine it as like a private room in the Bodleian.
Reading Room - like the Reading Room in the British Museum
Archives  - the endless rows of books and manuscripts in the Bodleian stacks or the British Library,  many, if not most, entirely unread.

Vivarium - an early monastery and educational facility in the south of Italy. Attempted to copy and preserve old books and manuscripts from across the ancient world
Scriptorium  - the room, or space, in which monastic scribes worked.
Bibliothekai  - shelves and cabinets in the Great Library of Alexandria

The Rolls - formal charters and records kept as part of the governance of England from 1200 or so. The senior judge in the Court of Appeal is still called the Master of the  Rolls.
Chancery - the place where scribes wrote and stored government records
Exchequer - ditto for managing government taxes and revenues
Chaper House - the very large room in monasteries, used for daily meetings, task allocation etc

Treasury - the secure storage place for precious goods, used since ancient times.

Nalanda - renowned and very early Buddhist monastery and university in Northern India

Canary Wharf - huge (from a London perspective) set of office blocks east of the City of London, contains many banks and finance firms. The area is the Isle of Dogs. Artificial,  nothing organic about it at all.


wraith808

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #756 on: September 25, 2020, 12:27 PM »
Very interesting that you apply so much thought to the naming conventions and stylize them!  I wonder if that gives a bit of a boost to the chance of the system 'working'.

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #757 on: September 25, 2020, 02:04 PM »
I'm not sure whether it's just odd, but I do find it puts me into a better mindset for working. You'll maybe have noticed that there's a different vibe in each section.

I noticed someone on the Obsidian forums using a seedbox analogy, presumably with further steps leading to evergreen notes. So it's not just me.

The target with my overall system is removing frustrating friction and points where indecision creates stasis. And I expect the names to create a mental impression of somewhere I associate with the right type of productivity.

The one I'm least comfortable with is Nalanda because, as far as I know,  there was no contact between it and the Vivarium, though I'm sure they'd have been keen to copy their manuscripts if they'd access. Most accurate examples just have Library in their names which would have created a clash. Serapeum might be accurate, but was just a short-lived remnant of the Great Library of Alexandria. Pergamum would have been good (probably the second greatest Library in the Roman Empire), but the infamous Robert Maxwell named his publishing house Pergamon Press - later bought by Elsevier which I also dislike, so would have just irritated. So I  had to go further afield, and Nalanda works and had many similarities with the Vivarium.

Helps me be in the right mood like having music on.
But I know that doesn't work for everyone either.

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #758 on: September 25, 2020, 06:31 PM »
Just rearranging deck chairs,
trusting I'm not on a Titanic design.

I was heavily into tags and links with few folders. I came to realise that there was little gain from that when a tag was categorical with boundaries that were rarely crossed. So I've shifted notes around so that some are in sub-folders. Creates the option if making them vaults,  even if I don't see a need right now.

It's also highlighted the dependence of nearly all designs on folders, even where tags can do a better job. If I could cut and dice tag views in the same way I can folders, I would have had no temptation to change. As things stand with many programs, the most flexible visual options come from using both folders and tags together.

superboyac

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #759 on: September 25, 2020, 10:53 PM »

Just rearranging deck chairs,
trusting I'm not on a Titanic design.

I was heavily into tags and links with few folders. I came to realise that there was little gain from that when a tag was categorical with boundaries that were rarely crossed. So I've shifted notes around so that some are in sub-folders. Creates the option if making them vaults,  even if I don't see a need right now.

It's also highlighted the dependence of nearly all designs on folders, even where tags can do a better job. If I could cut and dice tag views in the same way I can folders, I would have had no temptation to change. As things stand with many programs, the most flexible visual options come from using both folders and tags together.
agree...rigid and flexible to the exact degree you prefer.

40hz

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #760 on: September 28, 2020, 08:53 AM »
I've also given a lot of thought to names. It's important that I know instantly what a folder is for - so nothing I don't instantly recognise - and the physical analogies work well for me. They also need the right vibe because that helps me work better. Its a very personal set of preferences.

That’s an extremely interesting approach. It has echos of an older technique that’s usually referred to as a ‘memory palace,’ where one’s classification of stored information is mentally linked to mnemonic imagery that most often takes the form of rooms and places in a real or imaginary building, or the landmarks found along a familiar walk.

It’s a valuable mental technique worth cultivating, to say nothing of an approach  that works equally well when mapped out to external technologies such as outlines, wikis, note tags, text databases, and similar technical innovations.  :up:

(P.S. It’s been awhile for me. Nice to see some of the old crew can still be found having interesting discussions on DC.)  :)

40hz

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #761 on: September 28, 2020, 09:01 AM »
I know how it works, working at a financial reporting institution.  I'm just saying that the 200m valuation is high based on the fact that we do know.  And standards indicate that it is a percentage of the sales+assets-liabilities over a period of time.  It's a standard and known fact.

Running a Z-score calculation is also helpful. It’s not a 100% reliable predictor. But it’s right often enough that, when combined with ratio analysis and a good hard look at the fundamentals, it can give you a pretty clear idea of just how big a gamble you’re taking.

After that it’s time to play Dirty Harry. As in: “How lucky do you feel?”  ;D

Institutional investors, being bound by concerns about fiduciary responsibility and reputation, need to be more cautious than individual and small investors who my chose to take an  occasional ‘flyer’ and hope for the best.

And who knows? Sometimes long shots do pay off. Just so long as you can responsibly afford the risk - and understand it’s more akin to gambling than investing - there’s no harm done.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2020, 09:07 AM by 40hz »

wraith808

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #762 on: September 28, 2020, 10:05 AM »
That’s an extremely interesting approach. It has echos of an older technique that’s usually referred to as a ‘memory palace,’ where one’s classification of stored information is mentally linked to mnemonic imagery that most often takes the form of rooms and places in a real or imaginary building, or the landmarks found along a familiar walk.

I saw that referenced on an episode (the last episode maybe) of the Librarians.  I didn't realize that it was a real thing.

40hz

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #763 on: September 28, 2020, 11:38 AM »
I saw that referenced on an episode (the last episode maybe) of the Librarians.  I didn't realize that it was a real thing.

Yep. Prior to the advent of affordable books the practice of training up human memory and recall to produce an “artificial memory” was a highly valued skill. You can find a general introduction to it here.

The basics of the technique are pretty simple:



But it takes some planning and a commitment to regular practice. However, speaking from experience, it’s very doable. And fun too!   :):Thmbsup:


« Last Edit: September 28, 2020, 12:07 PM by 40hz »

wraith808

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #764 on: September 28, 2020, 01:47 PM »
Thanks!  Another rabbit hole for me to go down!  ;D :Thmbsup:

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #765 on: September 28, 2020, 05:45 PM »
It has echos of an older technique that’s usually referred to as a ‘memory palace,’
You're right. I hadn't made that link myself. But many common aspects.

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #766 on: September 28, 2020, 05:57 PM »
Another rabbit hole for me to go down!
It's a very powerful and successful technique. I wish you well.

But it takes some planning and a commitment to regular practice.

Indeed.
My experience is that people will take it up, overcome initial snags (possibly with some direction), and are amazed at how well it works.
But speak to them six months later and they've given it up. Finding things sometimes without effort is more seductive than a little effort and constant success.

It works as an example of Henry Ford's maxim : “Before everything else, getting ready is the secret of success” and further explains why success is rare.

JavaJones

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #767 on: September 28, 2020, 07:17 PM »
40hz! Great to see you here again. :)

Thought everyone might want to take a look at The Codex Editor project, if you haven't already: https://twitter.com/.../1302783862666264577
And check out his YouTube channel where he demos it: https://www.youtube....UZ24IoQjC7t-A/videos
This guy's work is insane IMO. *This* is the system I'm holding my breath for...

- Oshyan

40hz

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #768 on: September 29, 2020, 11:49 AM »
40hz! Great to see you here again.

Thanks JJ!

Good seeing you and some of the Vieille Garde regulars again. It’s been far too long. I definitely missed the civility and high level of discourse that characterizes DC’s forum. This place is like an oasis of civilization compared to some of the online circles I’ve (more of necessity than choice) been moving in lately. It’s refreshing. :)

wraith808

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #769 on: September 29, 2020, 03:09 PM »
Hope to see you visit more regularly- it's not been the same without you!  :Thmbsup:

Dormouse

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #770 on: September 29, 2020, 08:17 PM »
Institutional investors, being bound by concerns about fiduciary responsibility and reputation, need to be more cautious than individual and small investors who my chose to take an  occasional ‘flyer’ and hope for the best.

And who knows? Sometimes long shots do pay off. Just so long as you can responsibly afford the risk - and understand it’s more akin to gambling than investing - there’s no harm done.
And the opportunity is here:
Since our last update, veryone's been asking whether or not they can invest in Roam! We are currently preparing the paperwork, via WeFunder, and we'll be giving first dibs to Believers. We want everyone in the broader community to also have the chance to invest.

Since we don't want to go public, the government is making us jump through a lot of hoops to make equity available to those aren't accredited investors. So stay tuned as we jump through those hoops for you!

I noticed that the spellchecker didn't seem to be working.  ;D

More seriously, I'd regard 'believers' as a financially vulnerable (but not poor, so an attractive target) group by definition.
My view is the the existence of robinhood etc already tempts too many people who don't know what they're doing into share trading and this makes me uncomfortable.

40hz

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #771 on: September 29, 2020, 09:07 PM »
Hope to see you visit more regularly- it's not been the same without you!  :Thmbsup:

Probably a lot less discursive and wordy too.  ;) :-[

superboyac

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #772 on: September 29, 2020, 09:58 PM »
Hope to see you visit more regularly- it's not been the same without you!  :Thmbsup:

Probably a lot less discursive and wordy too.  ;) :-[
Hey!  Look who's back!!  Great to see my good friend!!

40hz

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #773 on: September 29, 2020, 10:02 PM »
Hey!  Look who's back!!  Great to see my good friend!!


Hey you! Good to see you too! Hope life is treating you kindly. It's been a crazy few years. Especially this one, hasn't it? :)

Shades

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Re: I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
« Reply #774 on: September 29, 2020, 11:07 PM »
Good seeing you and some of the Vieille Garde regulars again. It’s been far too long. I definitely missed the civility and high level of discourse that characterizes DC’s forum. This place is like an oasis of civilization compared to some of the online circles I’ve (more of necessity than choice) been moving in lately. It’s refreshing. :)

Should these current posts from 40hz not be transferred to the thread for hearing from members that haven't been active when DC celebrated being online for 10 years? While 40hz may not have been "away" for that long, it does feel that way sometimes.  ;D