Prediction: Google will Become Stumbleupon

[mouser]

I have some advice to the stumbleupon people: be scared (or make yourself a nice looking buyout target).

Niall Kennedy recently blogged about a google gadget that uses your search history to recommend other searches it thinks you might like. (http://www.niallkenn...ogle-personal-2.html).

I think we are seeing the first ripples of the plan google has for tracking your entire search history.

For those who don't know, StumbleUpon is a very cool service/toolbar which lets users rate sites they like or dislike, and then randomly send you to sites it thinks you will like based on similar tastes among users.  It's  very cool thing (www.stumbleupon.com).  It is in some ways similar to digg and others in that it tries to bring you sites it thinks you will like based on other people's opinions, thought the mechanisms are quite different.

It seems to me that google is going to make a real play for this market, by doing massive clustering of user searches in an attempt to provide stumbleupon like suggestions.  It's a natural move that will let them get advertising money not just when users initiate a search on their own but by actively SUGGESTING pages they should visit, and making ad money from those page visits.

I'm not saying whether this is a good or bad thing, it will depend a lot on what the google implementation looks like.  I just think if you put the puzzle pieces together:

• Tracking Search History
• Pushing Google Toolbar
• Google Desktop Sidebar

And you combine that with the datamining algorithmic "fun" factor involved in doing clustering of user page ratings, it's just not conceivable to me that google isn't going to want to own this market..  Just remember where you heard it first.

[Eóin]

I think we are seeing the first ripples of the plan google has for tracking your entire search history.

-mouser (September 12, 2006, 02:26 AM)

I don't know how effective it really is but I recently signed up for Lost in the Crowd to try and regain some anonymity online. Thought it was relevant to mention here .

[housetier]

How, if at all, is SU generating revenue?

[mouser]

Each time you click the Stumble button on SU it serves you up a page it think you will like based on what it has learned about your preferences.

BUT occasionally it serves you up an advertising-paid sponsored page.  There is supposed to be a subtle indication of such pages but i never spot it. 

[housetier]

Maybe my adblock extensions blocks the page: whenever I think "why didn't it load the next page?" and try again, it was actually adblock not letting me load the page at all...

[mouser]

I wanted to bump this because i want people to give me credit for predicting it when it happens. 

I predict by 2008 google will have bought out stumbleupon or made a play to take over it's marketshare.

[Ruffnekk]

I really really hope that won't happen, but I fear too! SU is great as it is and I truly hope it remains that way forever