Why 2012 may finally be The Year of the Linux Desktop (courtesy of Microsoft)

[40hz]

It would be interesting to see what would happen if manufacturers refused to pre-install Win 8 with a locked app store - MS would lose it ability to sell Windows altogether so I don't think they are in a terribly strong position on this.

-Carol Haynes (September 23, 2011, 10:53 AM)

That would actually be trickier for US firms than it would first appear. Any time a group of businesses banded together to face down a single company, they could inadvertently violate anti-cartel regulations. It all depends on how it was handled.

Even an informal "gentleman's agreement" to embargo Windows 8 might well step over the line.

Even something as innocuous as a speaker at a major trade conference urging fellow members to fight Microsoft by not adopting Windows 8 might go too far under the law - which is deliberately vague and subject to judicial interpretation.

But even without that, I don't have much hope for major hardware providers playing hardball with Microsoft over this. Especially since it doesn't matter to them which OS their box ships with as long as it it ships.

And I'm guessing most end users probably won't care much either.

Which leaves corporate IT - who will probably welcome as much lockdown on installing apps as Microsoft will give them. It's also moot from their perspective since Microsoft has already announced a workaround for them in the form of an official "side load" feature strictly for use by corporate IT.

So all that finally remains to object are the developers.  

And since when has anybody ever listened to their objections?

[Carol Haynes]

If hardware manufacturers can't boycott MS because of Cartel rules there is nothing to stop them suing MS for locking them out of the systems they build. In fact they could proabbly build a substantiale class action across a number of continents.

The EU certainly won't sit back and let MS do this without a lot of time wasted in courts.

The big profit earner for manufacturers is putting crap on new computers - if all that crap has to pay a license to MS to get onboard and then pay another chunk to the manufacturer it will become uneconomic for them.

[zridling]

The problem Microsoft is introducing with Win8 is that it will wall-off Windows 8 not only from Linux, but from earlier versions of Windows from being dual-booted thanks to its UEFI. This effectively locks the machine down and out and turns it into an Apple-like brick. As someone said, "there goes the 'personal' in PCs." Maybe firmware hackers will suddenly make a lot of money! But you'll also being buying a dead box -- no new graphics cards, no new network cards, or any other upgrades unless provided a signing key by Microsoft. As Carol points out, Microsoft is saying OEMs don’t have to go along with the Win8 license; they just have to do it if they want to sell PCs with Windows on them. Paging the anti-trust lawyers!

Macs have about 5% of the desktop market and Linux hangs in at 1-3% depending on how you measure it, so hardware manufacturers can't help but go along with Microsoft's craziness here. What's confusing is that if Linux only has 1% of the market, why lockdown the machine at boot level? How do they see themselves threatened by a Linux desktop "market" that persistently hovers at 1% share? Maybe the reason is that they want to force the Metro UI on users, which in turn might help Windows mobile/tablet sales over Android. It's not Apple they hate, it's Linux. Thus the emulation of Apple in response to Google and Android.


Ubuntu's Unity desktop (four workspaces).

Centralization of distros will put linux in same queue as that of apple and windows. There will be more people unsatisfied with the choices made by council before final OS release, take example of ubuntu unity window manger move or monthly release move. So my view is that it doesn't matter which distro user is running on desktop. They need apps to get their work done. Non-developers are concerned about getting work done and developers are interested in platform stability and ease of development. Linux has ability to balance this need without losing any popularity factor.

-mahesh2k (September 22, 2011, 05:18 AM)

You'll never see that centralization either. At least you hope not. It's just not needed. You already have most desktop users running (1) Debian/Ubuntu/Mint, (2) Fedora, (3) openSUSE, or (4) Arch under two (app) installers. If you've used one, you could use any other without a learning curve.

There is also a huge inertia in the software market. How many professional products (such as photo/graphics or video editing, or a decent word processor/DTP) are available for Linux? And who writes games for Linux?

-Carol Haynes (September 22, 2011, 09:28 AM)

They're coming, but they need more developers (who as you say, can code for more users!). I've been doing some HD video editing with OpenShot and it's very smooth.

Until corporate users and power users can use some of their past investment in a Linux environment they are going to be more than reluctant to move. If you have worked for years with Qurk as your publishing package and can no longer even open Quark files why would you consider changing to Linux. Mac maybe since Windows/Mac both have compatible product catalogues (MS Office, Adobe, Quark etc.)

-Carol Haynes (September 22, 2011, 09:28 AM)

What you're working in has become a niche market! All I need an OS for as an end user is to get me to the cloud, to my browser, and from there I can do the rest in HTML5 and beyond. Adobe is still building 20th century apps.


Windows 8 Metro UI

[superboyac]

UEFI...this is new to me.  Right now, I strongly prefer Windows.  But if they start restricting my access to my hardware, I'm going to turn to Linux pretty quickly.  If I even sense a restriction of access to my files and folders, or registry, or booting, etc.  I'm going to look for alternatives.

[Carol Haynes]

What you're working in has become a niche market! All I need an OS for as an end user is to get me to the cloud, to my browser, and from there I can do the rest in HTML5 and beyond. Adobe is still building 20th century apps.

-zridling (September 23, 2011, 02:35 PM)

Niche market? Really?

How do you do professional photo editing in HTML 5 when you only have access to dial up or slow broadband - like most of the US, a huge part of Europe and the rest of the world.

You may see Adobe as "producing 20th century apps" but they are still used by the majority of pro users doing any kind of graphics or design work and until everyone has access to fibre optics and the internet backbone has been improved to cope we ain't going totally cloud any time soon! And damn good thing too.

It is one of the few positives of slow internet access as far as I can see.

I don't know what it is like in the rest of the world but in the UK a growing number of people are choosing to move to rural areas because they can work from home via the internet. Speeds are slow but adequate for what most people need now. Start expecting the internet to cope with fast uploading 16mega pixel images and other large documents (HD video anyone) and you are talking cloud-cuckoo-land.

It'll probably come all too soon but personally I am hoping not before I retire!

[Stoic Joker]

All I need an OS for as an end user is to get me to the cloud, to my browser, and from there I can do the rest in HTML5 and beyond. Adobe is still building 20th century apps.

-zridling (September 23, 2011, 02:35 PM)

You should bite your tung for that. Cloud schmoud, we don't want no stinking cloud(s). I'll not be sticking my data balloon up into no cloud. 'Cause I don't want the first stiff breeze to whip that sucker over the horizon and away.

Sure, it'll be perfectly secure (Ha!) in 10 or 20 years ... But until then it'll be a friggin train wreck of horror stories about where ones data isn't anymore. Remember the good ol' days when you could get your data back in a month or so for $3,000 - $5,000? Now progress has made the cost ($0) irrelevant ... because your data is just flat gone. Unless you happen to be in a Russian coffee shop (where it's being sold to the highest bidder).

[40hz]

All I need an OS for as an end user is to get me to the cloud, to my browser, and from there I can do the rest in HTML5 and beyond.

-zridling (September 23, 2011, 02:35 PM)

All I need from an OS is for it to stop shoving the cloud in my face every two minutes, or require a web connection in order to get my work done.

I have no use for the cloud beyond having it provide secondary offsite backup space for non-secure data and possibly some project oriented team sharing functions.

For everything else, I want the cloud to stay the hell out of my home, my workplace, and off my desktop.

If that's being a Luddite, so be it. I can live with that.  



But I can't help but find it interesting that so many people are so seduced by all the web 2.0 bells & whistles that they're willing to go back to the days of being a glorified terminal client on a mainframe.

How 20th century is that?  

[superboyac]

All I need an OS for as an end user is to get me to the cloud, to my browser, and from there I can do the rest in HTML5 and beyond.

-zridling (September 23, 2011, 02:35 PM)

All I need from an OS is for it to stop shoving the cloud in my face every two minutes, or require a web connection in order to get my work done.

I have no use for the cloud beyond having it provide secondary offsite backup space for non-secure data and possibly some project oriented team sharing functions.

-40hz (September 23, 2011, 03:15 PM)

Amen brotha!!!

[Stoic Joker]

All I need an OS for as an end user is to get me to the cloud, to my browser, and from there I can do the rest in HTML5 and beyond.

-zridling (September 23, 2011, 02:35 PM)

All I need from an OS is for it to stop shoving the cloud in my face every two minutes, or require a web connection in order to get my work done.

I have no use for the cloud beyond having it provide secondary offsite backup space for non-secure data and possibly some project oriented team sharing functions.

-40hz (September 23, 2011, 03:15 PM)

Amen brotha!!!

-superboyac (September 23, 2011, 04:10 PM)

Seconded.

[zridling]

Look around folks: software lost. A very few mega-corporations control your computing, even your access to data and information. Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Apple, AT&T, Nokia, etc. Uninstall your browsers and play those games by yourselves and then see how much fun "computing" is.

-- You buy Apple, you're buying all in.
-- You buy Microsoft, you're buying lock-in, and with Win8, that too, means you're all in for Redmond.
-- Linux gives you a few choices, but given that most people use their computer to access and share information, the OS is a forgotten layer (as it should be).
_________________
@Carol:
The market for $800 photo software isn't expanding. The marketable skill of photo editing will always be valuable. But not Adobe's fatware and Flash.

[Carol Haynes]

@Carol:
The market for $800 photo software isn't expanding. The marketable skill of photo editing will always be valuable. But not Adobe's fatware and Flash.

-zridling (September 24, 2011, 12:57 AM)

Sorry:

Quarter 4 2010 hits billion dollar record: http://www.adobe.com...12/Q410Earnings.html

Sept 22nd 2011 - Record sales: http://thestockmarke...-top-estimates/12708

and despite Jobs's best attempts to kill Flash:

http://www.webscopia...r-ipads-and-iphones/

Given that EVERYTHING os about design and presentation these days I don't see pro photo and graphic editing going anywhere anytime soon - and if it does go in any direction it is unlikely to be to the cloud.

I would guess the recent slightly fluctuating performance of Adobe's stock is more likely caused by business trying to save money and stick with CS3 or CS4 products rather than upgrading to CS5 at the moment. We are in the middle of a world wide recession and the US in on the brink of complete meltdown! Even so Adobe are hardly a company on the brink!