^40, I'm not sure what you mean by "the outcome is predictable". -tomos
It will either implode (likely), be outlawed and shut down (quite likely), or (much less likely) forced into the existing financial framework in much the same way that Paypal was as a vanilla payment service. What it will not be allowed to remain is an "investment opportunity." Or as a system with the potential to easily facilitate the transfer of funds for things deemed to be 'illegal.' Legally (or extra-legally if necessary) it simply won't be allowed to continue. Period.
According to that article it's given bitcoin credibility:
The value of a bitcoin rose to more than $60 a unit from less than $49 on one exchange following the release of FinCen's new guidance—a move that Mr. Garzik attributed partly to a new level of certainty and legitimacy that federal recognition attaches to bitcoin transactions.
I think it more accurate to characterize it as giving Bitcoin the spotlight rather than credibility. The simple fact its valuation is zooming up so rapidly is a positive indication (to me at any rate) that the arbitragers, always out to make a quick buck, have scented an opportunity (i.e. money + publicity + amateur investors) and are starting to move in on it. If I'm correct, bitcoins will continue their rapid rate climb for a few more months before it all tanks when the pros suddenly cash out
en masse.
And lets not forget there is
federal recognition - and then there's
FEDERAL RECOGNITION - as in "subject of interest" in an government investigation or probe. In this case, the 'recognition' is that the feds see this as a potential problem just starting to show up on their SONAR and which they are now in the process of computing a "shooting solution" for.
Re spending it:
why would anyone want to spend it when the price is inflating so much -
They wouldn't. Which can cause major problems for an economy and therefor why speculation in domestic currency is illegal in many countries. Hording cash has negative consequences across the board in most instances.
which means of course that it's pretty useless as an active currency - but good as an investment (for the moment anyways).
Which is an interesting switch in much of the argument for having Bitcoins. Originally it was meant to be an alternative currency. Now, most of it's admirers seem to prefer to see it as on investment opportunity. However, what it is actually an investment
in raises some interesting questions. There doesn't seem to be much of
anything behind a bitcoin other than the cash originally paid - and a bunch of people somehow mutually agreeing it's magically worth more than that. Which then raises the question of how its value can be increasing so rapidly above the value of the hard money paid in to create it originally.
How and
where is there any value being
added? By demand? Ok. But if so, demand for
what? A demand for a higher value based on the demand it be...
valued higher?
It's circular logic...
And if so, that's
not investing. It's pure
speculation. More along the lines of having the brass kahunas to raise on a busted flush in a poker game with the hope your opponent folds first. So if these bitcoin "investors" aren't very careful, this whole thing could easily turn into something much like a Ponzi scheme, with those first in (and first to cash out) being the big beneficiaries, while everybody else is left holding a bag full of worthless bits in some database.
Dunno. This whole thing strikes me as being more like the brief US Pog fad a few years back then anything else. For awhile that was the big "in thing" with collectors touting the "incredible value" and rapid price appreciation of their collections. Then, once the kids started getting into, it the prices for "collectible" Pogs really took off. It wasn't long before Pog collectors even had their own magazine.
It took less than a year or so before people woke up and asked: "Why exactly did I spend $10 last week to buy this little round piece of printed cardboard?" That usually happened right about the time they tried to sell their collection and discovered it was suddenly worthless - which coincided very neatly with the fact that the little kiosk at their local shopping mall (which had been doing such a brisk trade selling Pogs the month before) was now gone...
Recent Posts
-Renegade (March 25, 2013, 09:57 AM)
Ren-man, any chance of you doing us up a 5-15 on it? 
lol
-Tinman57 (March 23, 2013, 07:09 PM)