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Living Room / Traffic Growth Could Choke 'Net by 2010
« Last post by app103 on November 20, 2007, 05:12 AM »One of the great things about technology is that it's surprisingly easy to underestimate how strong the demand for it can become. Remember IBM CEO Thomas Watson's purported 1943 remark, "There's a world market for maybe 5 computers," and Bill Gates' supposed 1980 comment, "640 kbytes of RAM ought to be enough for anyone"?
Interestingly, there's no evidence that either is an actual quotation -- and Gates in particular has emphatically denied the words attributed to him. However, they linger in the public consciousness as a way of reminding ourselves of a greater truth: The appetite for technology can surprise even seasoned veterans.
That certainly happened to me recently. Awhile back, my colleagues and I decided to look at how demand for Internet capacity might change over the next five years, and see whether the existing and planned infrastructure is adequate. To do so, we modeled user consumption of bandwidth over time, validated it against the best available data and then projected that demand forward. It's essentially a Moore's Law model of Internet demand, in that it looks at the rate of increase in a commodity (processing power in the case of Moore's Law, and bandwidth use here). Then we compared that demand to existing and planned infrastructure capacity...

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Thanks, app103, your site looks very useful. But do you really have to transfer it manually?


