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Recent Posts

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251
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 22, 2011, 03:08 PM »
Amen, brutha.  I just started a business last year.  Seeing all this stuff makes me feel either of two ways: naive for insisting to make a buck the honest way; stupid for not coming up with these methods myself.

Yes, that is the problem I have too. At times I feel stupid for not playing these dirty tricks. However, they *do* come back to bite them in the long run, at least in many cases. Of course, then they open up shop under a new name and all is 'reset' and 'forgotten', lol.

Transparency is the key. If consumers could see more about what is going on, in unmanipulated format, then it would help, as it could theoretically affect their purchasing decisions. This is what the media is supposed to do, but sadly there are more paid for editorials than there is exposes on the internet.
252
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 22, 2011, 03:01 PM »
Renegade: Sorry to be sarcastic ;p. I meant to say, I don't know. Maybe the SEC filings for one of the publicly traded HDD manufacturers. This information is likely not easy to find in the format you need it in. I'm going to guess it would take a good day of work to extrapolate it from SEC financial statements.

@superboyac: You have cause to be suspicious. Flooding is true. However, as I've described, nobody is eager for the prices to go back down, and you can bet they will take maximum advantage of this situation by doing things like *not* ramping up production in alternate facilities as quickly as they could/should/would. After all, there is a financial disincentive for them to do so. As for the other, more elaborate, conspiracy theories.. dunno about that.

Look, guys, this world is whack. It all comes down to the bottom dollar for all publicly traded corporations, and most private companies even. I've seen the dirtiest tricks, most manipulative tactics, out-right theft of IP from one company to another. Nothing surprises me any more. The hard thing is fighting it, running an ethical business in the face of these atrocities.
253
Living Room / Re: What is a mouser? What does it mean to mouser someone?
« Last post by db90h on November 20, 2011, 08:03 PM »
Is it? Do you think adding pressure to him, as you did in the YUMPS thread is helpful? Creative things take a certain degree of inspiration, it isn't like digging a ditch, where a bull-whip works best.
254
Living Room / Re: What is a mouser? What does it mean to mouser someone?
« Last post by db90h on November 20, 2011, 07:53 PM »
. Dunno why he puts up with this.
255
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 18, 2011, 12:24 PM »
Sure. Look on the internet ;p.
256
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 17, 2011, 07:59 PM »
I've never seen any reports on what HDDs cost to manufacture and sell that indicated anything about their pricing.
Does anyone have any inside information or know of any reliable information on the topic? I'm curious.

The cost of goods manufactured will be on the financial statement of any publicly traded company, so you could look this up if you wanted. Depending on how detailed the information you got was, it could be the total cost of the goods (including labor), or itemized all the way down to every piece. Of course, there is the set cost and the dynamic cost (incorrect terms, go look up the right ones, but you know what I mean, the base cost of doing business [e.g. factory], then cost per unit for quantity). Right now, of course, it is all about supply and demand (and speculation), and a temporary inability to produce sufficient capacity resulting in an excuse to raise prices.

UPDATE: Of course, the end retail price is of course inflated further, as the manufacturers sell in large bulk blocks, with each individual unit costing substantially less than you'd pay retail on a single unit basis. On eBay I saw large blocks of WD20EARS going for around $200 a piece though, indicating the likely end retail price, at least as predicted by some, in the short term.
257
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 17, 2011, 06:37 PM »
Woody Leonhard, who lives in Thailand, has a piece on the Windows Secrets site about the flooding and the effects on the hard disk industry.

He claims that the manufacturers, or at least their share-holders, are actually quite happy with the situation because it has temporarily changed th HD market from cut-throat commodity pricing to high profit margins.

That is what I've said a few times, in much longer sentences ;p. For them, in such a low-margin industry, I actually can give them a little sympathy though. It isn't like the Oil companies ya know, these guys were barely scraping by on HDD profits as it was. That is why I do not expect anyone to be too quick to fix the 'problem', if you know what I mean... ;p
258
General Software Discussion / Re: Why I stand up for Stallman
« Last post by db90h on November 14, 2011, 05:03 PM »
...
259
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 12, 2011, 11:40 AM »
Posted yesterday by analyst:

http://www.cnet.com....affray-339326004.htm

"The scarcity of hard disk drives will only get worse in the coming weeks and months, according to an analyst at Piper Jaffray."

260
Anyway, you don't really want to be that guy saying things are impossible do you? As you surely know, almost everything is possible - one way or another. The fact that nobody has gotten it done in this world where nobody likes to pay for software is not really that surprising ;).
261
If you get paid for your work up front, then someone else owns that work, I assume. Except in rare cases I suppose, or if you are taking out a bank loan (which is not being paid up front, that's a loan you pay back).

And I wasn't insulting anyone. In previous post I used a lot of maybes, mights, and mays so things couldn't be taken wrong, but I guess they somehow were. Note that I recently have made a few people not so happy with my comments about how our society seems so reluctant to pay for software, if you think I was saying paying for dev was wrong. Dunno, you just seem grumpy.
262
Joking aside, which I assume you were joking about a $10k sponsor, as I've been doing things wrong if those are common...

The explorer COM based extension interface has become increasingly robust, and I have not had a need to study it, but I did see an application that demonstrated functionality similar to what would be required here to put it in the folder view instead of properties... suggesting it might be possible, though maybe require a bit of creative thinking.
263
But if someone wants to sponsor research I'd gladly take another go for a $10,000 stipend.

As a low-level Windows programmer myself -- So would I, lol ;). In fact, I'll take $9,000 ;p
264
Agreed on necessity for the need for such an app, but it needs to be more accessible, as in a shell (explorer) extension that allows for viewing and editing comments right there in the explorer folder view. I often make a file that contains notes in the filename, using a special char to make sure, when sorted ascending alphabetically, it is at the top.
265
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 02, 2011, 10:51 AM »
I'm returning a 1TB external WD with bad sectors tomorrow. The warranty still applies so it should be interesting to see how soon I get a replacement.  :)

You stand a good chance now, but in a few weeks.. dunno. I think most of the distributors still have stock, they just trying to set the prices at this time, anticipating no more shipments.
266
So, anybody used this yet? Did it work for you ok? I intend to update it soon, have to take care of paying my rent stuff first, then this is up for finalization.
267
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 02, 2011, 08:24 AM »
The theory does not help us to understand the rate at which things will move up or down relative to each other.

Close, but not quite what I'm saying, as the curves will have DIFFERENT SLOPES. The deflation curve will be SLOWER than the inflation curve, substantially... more gradual in its descent.

Specifically, my statement was that due to human greed the prices will not go down as fast as they went up, because the people buying up all the inventory (and even retail stores) are going to want to keep the prices inflated as long as possible... long AFTER the supply has been restored to adequate levels. The competitive pressure will be reduced substantially, though it will eventually force the price back down... slooowwwlly.

Example: It isn't going to drop 50% in a day, like it went up 50% in a day ;)

Another example of where theory doesn't apply in real life as exactly as it does in an economic class.
268
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 02, 2011, 06:01 AM »
theory would support the probable truth of that statement (p
The prices will probably soar only until people stop buying them.
Exactly.
Elementary economic theory would support the probable truth of that statement (per the classic demand and supply diagram).

BUT ... the increase in speculation will decrease the effective supply, as these speculators are going to be parting with their drives for the max they can get. So, the price will rise as major retailers run out of stock, then flatten as the speculators start to unload their inventory, then gradually decrease ... which I explained in a previous post more eloquently. The way back down is not nearly as fast as the rise in prices.
269
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 02, 2011, 05:57 AM »
2.5" external hard drives jumped up 50% in the last 2 days, finally. I was waiting for this to happen, because it was as if the market forgot they existed. Example: WD My Passport SE 1TB /w USB 3 (essential). I bought one for backup use a month ago for $79, but regular price was $99. Now they are $149-$159, though some places are still selling at $99-$109, but that's changing fast.
270
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 01, 2011, 07:15 PM »
Those who do have drives are keeping their inventory under wraps until the market sets the right price. The strange thing is that the external 2.5" drives have seen less of an impact, though have seen price increases. The only difference would be speculation (as in speculators), afaik.
271
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 01, 2011, 03:51 PM »
Updated last post (as usual, and I insist on notification about my massive post-edits ;p).
272
Living Room / Re: Hard drive shortage
« Last post by db90h on November 01, 2011, 03:47 PM »
UPDATE:

I've been tracking the WD20EARS (the drives I use) and a few other models. Before this anticipated supply shortage and speculation it cost $69 (approx), shipping free. It jumped up to $139 when I started commenting in this thread. Now, it is $229 at NewEgg or $249 at TigerDirect. Ironically, Amazon has the SATA6G version of this HDD, the WD20EARX for $149, but I'm sure they'll follow soon with more price increases. That said, a new one on eBay went for under $100 the other day. Also, Buy.com has it for $146.86 ... prices are all over the place. It is as if certain retailers are trying to push up the price as far as possible.. ya think? ;p

I found one on eBay, had ordered it for a more reasonable price, and the seller cancelled my order!

Ref:
http://www.newegg.co...Item=N82E16822136514
http://www.tigerdire...1&srkey=wd20ears
http://www.buy.com/p...64-mb/213410517.html
273
Find And Run Robot / Re: FARR not a commonly downloaded program?
« Last post by db90h on October 31, 2011, 10:09 PM »
...
274
Find And Run Robot / Re: FARR not a commonly downloaded program?
« Last post by db90h on October 31, 2011, 09:44 PM »
I am just stating how things ARE. I am also saying this is a battle that I can not win! Therefore, I can not fight it ;o Pick your battles, etc..

If it WERE up to me, the warning would be less severe, so I do agree with you on that. But, reversing the decisions of a massive corporation that debated this issue for years...?? Can't do it. It would also alienate them from being involved in the FPR project. Lastly, these certificates must be validated, so they do cost money to 'produce'. You have to submit all sorts of documentation and such. So, hard to make them free.

I consider the cost affordable for anyone who can afford to live.. I mean, that's a few fast food meals, or a dinner out. MANY (if not MOST) industries have some sort of barrier to entrance. Some certification, license, etc..
275
Find And Run Robot / Re: FARR not a commonly downloaded program?
« Last post by db90h on October 31, 2011, 08:16 PM »
Since many don't understand this issue, let me explain more thoroughly.

I worked for a security company for years. This debate went on for years. Some wanted to disallow ALL UNSIGNED EXEs... As they did with Vista+ x64 drivers. However, some of us, including me, fought to make it so unsigned EXEs could be run. Of course, backwards compatibility also strongly encouraged this. So, consider yourselves lucky Microsoft didn't decide to put even stronger warnings on unsigned EXEs, or disallow them to be run at all, especially for 64-bit code, where new code had to built anyway (reducing the complications of backwards compatibility).

This change happened in Vista, where, if you never noticed, the UAC elevation prompt for unsigned EXEs has a much more ominous warning than a signed EXE.

The cost last I checked was (always going down) $80 a YEAR. That is $6.66 a month. So, eat one or two less cheeseburgers a month. Even enthusiasts can afford that. The cost of electricity to build the software is probably higher than that. If the cost was $1000 a year, my stance would be different - and so would Microsoft's.

Us engineers are ALWAYS trying to protect the 'small guy' against the 'big business'. Yet, these sort of criticisms come, and it is the malware authors you should blame -- not anyone else.

There is a cost to doing almost anything, and this is one additional (small) cost of publishing software. If you don't want to pay this 'fee', then you can publish unsigned EXEs and tell your users to ignore the security warnings, explaining why.

Now, I've helped you understand why this is so. Do you understand? The malware problem mandated it, and you are lucky the warning isn't worse, and that your code runs at all. As I've said, throughout history, the 'bad guys' come in and force legitimate businesses (or hobbyists) to incur additional overhead in order to prove their trustworthiness. As explained above, the mere presence of a cert doesn't mean much, it is the history of that cert that ends up counting. All security vendors track how good of a history your cert has shown. That is how things are done now, and why unsigned EXEs are potentially inherently more risky.

I do not mean to offend, but you are about 5 years behind the times on this 'debate' ... The debate is long over, and there is no changing things now. I know many here want a world where everything is free. Well, that isn't the utopia we live in. I wish it were. But it isn't. You aren't going to force Microsoft to change a policy they debated for years because you can not afford a cert (hard to believe if you can afford hosting, but.. whatever).

Now, I've helped you get up to speed on things. Don't take your anger, if there is any, out on the messenger.
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