I don't feel that today’s Linux trend is characterized by a commitment to “geekdom”.
I might not be able to throw in fancy developers arguments in the discussion, but has anybody tried the last PCLinuxOS or the last Ubuntu on "normal" hardware (not the latest hotest thing)... and then connected with wifi, browsed the web with firefox, opened media files, used OpenOffice, print something, scanned something, entered some contacts in evolution, etc.... All fairly normal stuff (and some more… all for free)? I mean, I've been able to install PCLinuxOS without touching anything on 4 different machines (2 laptops, 2 Desktops). The most I had to do was to look for binaries for an ATI (X1400) card. Experiences will vary, of course., but that was not much worse than installing windows.
As for everyday normal and non geeky use, my father who’s not exactly a geek, uses Ubuntu. He writes, browses, receives emails, etc. He updates his system when the little “tool tip” tells him to do it, etc. He’s not a geek, he doesn’t use anything else. That’s real life true experience. N=1, sure, but at least, it’s first hand experience.
“Linux” (let’s say Ubuntu, PCLinuxOS) is NOT perfect, far from it. I couldn’t use it everyday. But I can see myself using it one day... if-when I can use my windows apps or even convert to different apps without loosing too much in the process, and if I don’t have to sacrifice an exaggerate “amount” of hardware compatibility. Linux has gone a long way since 1998 (1997??), when I first tried it. A long long way. Isn't that obvious? The fact that people have been saying for ever “this year is Linux year”, “Linux is ready for the desktop”, etc. means nothing. People just dream. But one fact is there: Linux is getting better and the distance between its usability and Windows usability is shrinking.
What does Linux need? IMO: time, patience, work, more big corporations’ commitment (e.g. : Novel, IBM) and also countries-governments’ involvement (Turkey, China, India, France… you name it :
http://www.news.com/...166347.html?tag=item ). Seems obvious, maybe, but I don’t see how better drivers, better software, etc. ALONE can really make any difference… they now have to be backed by strong leadership (important and influential figures), big money and big populations. Yes, Michael Shuttleworth is in it for the money, So is Novel and Sun, and since they’ve been involved with Linux, it has progressed more quickly.
[edit : corrected the link]