It was an interesting read, but very fragmented. I struggled with the whole see-saw thing with all the examples.
Attempting to define intuition in more depth would have been helpful - I thought he made a few assumptions en route.
This quote really confused me:
I'm not claiming that the predictions of experts are fundamentally worthless. … Take doctors. They're often excellent when it comes to short-term predictions. But they're often quite poor in predicting how a patient will be doing in five or 10 years. And they don't know the difference. That's the key."They dont know the difference"
- how exactly?"That's the key"
- to what?
and then I ask why is he quoting this - and I cannot see.
The Mark Zuckerberg reference went over my head as well - no, I didnt follow the link (I presume I shouldn't *have* to in order to understand this article). Sometimes I'm slow in picking up on things, but other times I pick up on things that others just read over - not sure which is going on here.
The intuition thing definitely is interesting - I tried to explain my comment above (about assumptions), but found myself floundering a bit... maybe another time.