1) 'Domestic' desktop and laptop computers will have become much more marginalised than they are now and so will be less interest to their bottom line. If things continue the way they are now most 'consumer' level users will have shifted to tablets in 3 years time and that is where MS's focus market will be - with the lock-in store and data model.
2) ("Maybe" - added by me) Business users will start to see things the MS way. Personally I have my doubts on this and I can see a lot of businesses still using XP and 7 and not making the move.
I can see how this could become a class war among the "Consumer" and "Business & Expert" users.
(Notice the Consume part of Consumer. Not Customer! Consumer!
The Consumers "want" (with corporate help!) to Consume as fast as possible. Give them their email, their Facebook, their Web browsing, and some Apps (Oh look, it's Shareware but now it's called an App.) So if you only use 8 programs sure, stick them all on a big starter screen. "It's Easy! Click/touch the big button and you don't have to mess with that Desktop thingie that's too hard for me..."
To me what this really is, is a program hardlocking all data it knows to some theoretical folder such as (making this up) Users/Me/Office2013/Data or something. Since it's "Hardlocked" of course the program knows where it is, "Yay, It's All Right There. (TM)" (Concept exercise: make one of our signature "snacks" that forces all programs to save all data in one folder each and block all attempts to save it to anywhere else on that pesky desktop thingie, plus a part that makes you pick you pick your "favorite Apps" and tiles them all over the screen and won't let you do anything else except add and delete more tiles.)
An argument to a strategy I haven't seen yet is if you hardlock all program data to one file tree you can amputate a colossal part of Explorer, maybe half or more. (Folders, viewing tools, file types, who needs all that jazz if you can just call it a "Web File" in one folder?) So then people get used to the idea that they can only access their data *from within the program* which is the ultimate antidote to "terrorist tools like Libre Office" (sarcasm mine) if it's mysteriously "just an Office 2013 file" plus the OS dev costs become like working for Fisher Price.
Then they can offload all that "hard stuff" onto the Business and Expert users, whereupon the end user prices will skyrocket.
Lots of Eew there.