I don't think it's a strategy that's going to pay off in the long run although there may (out of necessity) be short-term consumer acceptance. Or, more correctly, acquiescence.
Wish I could agree...
The SaaS model is going to win out. Why? Because it takes control away from the user. Which is perfectly in line with the rest of the way the world is going...
I mean it.
Oh I'll agree with you up to a point. We are definitely going to see SaaFS. The move toward a walled garden on the part of Microsoft, and to a lesser extent Ubuntu, pretty much guarantees that's where the mainstream will go.
But it's one thing to conquer territory - and quite another thing to hold it.
Ultimately this nonsense (along with IP) will totally wreck the world economy. At which point attempting to create data and platform silos will join the scapheap of failed notions like "divine right","manifest destiny", and "nation building."
IBM was thought unassailable because of their legal and technical prowess. But they were unseated by upstarts. And even something as ruthless as the Third Reich (who had guns and tanks - and uniformed fanboys that would make any of today's most rabid zealots look like casual admirers) eventually fell despite appearing invincible at first. Nothing that is hurtful can continue forever. Rebellion and pushback are inevitable if whoever is doing the hurting can't keep the pain they're inflicting to a manageable level for their victims.
The only problem is, once the rebellion starts, there's always bloodshed and collateral damage.
Not an intelligent or efficient way to fix our problems even if it is effective.
I'm just hoping (most likely in vain) that we can avoid letting it get to the point where a full scale rebellion is the only option left.