Hurricane Sandy Discussion Thread

[SKA]

Is Philadelphia safe ie. any looting, unsafe incidents reported ?

Thanks

Ska

[J-Mac]

Nope. Other than the usual looting and unsafe incidents, of course.

Actually all we got was high winds and less than 3" of rain. Didn't stop the mayor from appearing on network TV about every hour to warn us about the upcoming apocalypse (Sandy). And the local news providing "Hurricane coverage" round the clock for two days, insisting that the bad stuff was really, really coming soon. They were soooo disappointed!

Jim

[mouser]

Can we make this thread a general hurricaine Sandy discussion thread?

My father is in NYC (lower manhattan) and still without power -- but is taking it in stride and says no big deal.

DC member app is in New Jersey (but not too close to shore) and has been offline since it hit.

[J-Mac]

Sure - OK by me!

Thanks!

Jim

[Stoic Joker]

I received an email from EarthLink Business outlining how throughly they were preparing for Sandy's arrival, the day after Sandy left. ...Just in the nick of to late there guys.  

[IainB]

(@SKA: I wonder if you could correct the title of the OP to read Hurricane... - i.e. not the "...caine" ending?)

There's a really interesting and informative post about H-Sandy in the context of the phenomena of hurricanes in general, on a climate scientist's blog (Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.) - “Hurricanes: Their Nature And Impacts On Society” Published In 1997 By Pielke Jr. and Pielke Sr. Available As A PDF
(The post is copied below including typos and the embedded hyperlink to the .PDF file.)

Our book Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society. John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp. is available as a pdf. The material is not updated for more recent storms (since 1997) but the recommendations and information on tropical cyclones may useful in the discussion of the impacts of Sandy. Of particular interest related to such late season hurricanes is the text on Hurricane Hazel (1954) where we wrote that

   Hazel joined with another storm system to devastate inland communities from Virginia to Ontario, Canada. Washington, DC experienced its strongest winds ever recorded……..In 1954, Hurricane Hazel…..underwent a similar rapid acceleration to a speed of 60 mph (27 meters per second), as strong south to southwesterly winds developed to the west of the storm. Hazel crossed the North Carolina coastline at 9:25 am on 15 October, and reached Toronto, Canada only 14 hours later where it resulted in 80 deaths (Joe et al. 1995). At that time, it was the most destructive hurricane to reach the North Carolina coast. Every fishing pier was destroyed over a distance of 170 miles (270 km) from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Cedar Island, North Carolina. All traces of civilization were practically annihilated at the immediate waterfront between Cape Fear and the South Carolina state line.
__________________

We reported that

   “….tropical cyclones can become absorbed into developing mid-latitude storms thereby infusing added moisture and wind energy from the tropical cyclone and resulting in a more intense mid-latitude storm than otherwise would occur.
__________________

Clearly, this later behavior is what made Sandy a much stronger storm than either a mid-latitude or hurricane would have been separately. In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane. It also tracked towards the west as it interacted with the developing mid-latitude storm rather than accelerating northward as Hazel did.  This resulted in the large fetch of easterly and southeasterly winds into northern New Jersey, Long Island and New Your City which produced the large storm surge.

Our book also discusses the impacts of tropical cyclones which includes extreme winds, storm surge, tornadoes, flash flooding and riverine (i.e. large river) flooding. The analysis has yet to be completed, but I suspect that storm surge will attributed, by far, to  largest economic damage.

Also, with a storm of this magnitude, the National Hurricane Center, the National Center for Environmental Prediction, the media and public officials must be recognized and commended for their early warming. This has resulted in a much lower loss of life than would have otherwise occurred.

[TaoPhoenix]

Vague Sentence alert: "In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane." - In what context was Sandy not a Hurricane? When it intercepted the second front?

[IainB]

Following on from my comment above, Roger Pielke Sr. has more posts about H-Sandy and other hurricanes on his blog. One of them: The Size Of Hurricane Sandy – How Does It Compare?
There are embedded images and links in his blog, so it is probably best to read them directly via the link, but here are two interesting extracts:

• Extract #1: For comparison with the figure from the book, the distance between 5 degrees of latitude in the figure below is 555 km (300 nautical miles or 345 statute miles ).  Tip had tropical storm winds out to ~700km on the east side and  hurricane winds out to about ~175 km from the eye.
  The  analyses from NHC [shown below] show that Sandy’s size of tropical storm and hurricane winds were comparable to Tip, but, fortunately, the hurricane winds were much less in Sandy.  Also, the radius of hurricane winds, appears to have contracted substantially at and right after landfall.
  
• Extract #2: Clearly, Sandy was a giant tropical cyclone, and rivals the largest ones in size that occur in the Pacific Ocean. A major difference with Tip, however, is that Tip attained wind speeds of up to 190 mph (305 km/h) and a central pressure of 870 millibars (25.69 inches of mercury) – see, while Sandy was a much more modest hurricane.  This suggests the potential that if a major hurricane (such as Hazel from 1955) followed the same path as Sandy as it merged with a midlatitude storm system, a truly worse-case superstorm could occur.  Thus the worse-case scenario, even with the current climate, did not happen with Sandy.
  Regardless, how, or if, the risk from hurricane landfalls of this type increases in the future, a prudent policy path would be to reduce the risk from all plausible hurricane landfalls. through more effective land use planning.

[IainB]

Some years ago, I was assigned to manage a project to develop a functional BCP (Business Continuity Plan) for a major Australian-owned bank based in New Zealand. The BCP had to be aligned with the stringent BCP standards mandated by the Australian parent. Being volcano-prone, earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone as an island on the "Pacific Rim of Fire", NZ already had/has a well-established MCD (Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management).
We collaborated closely with the MCD in developing the BCP, and during the course of that collaboration I learned how well-prepared NZ MCD was for naturally-occurring disastrous events. The level of preparedness was very impressive. For example, for years now, things like mandatory building standards have taken into account the need for buildings to behave in a certain manner for maximum safety, in the event of an earthquake tremor. These standards are constantly being improved and lessons are being learned even now from investigations/reviews of the outcomes of past disastrous events - e.g., things like the recent Christchurch earthquake(s).
Things could always be improved, and will be, but I think that the current level of planning and preparedness is quite impressive anyway.

My curiosity was thus sparked by the two underlined comments by Roger Pielke Snr. (quoted in the thread above):

• 1. The civil defense preparedness/response to H-Sandy was apparently effective:
  

  Also, with a storm of this magnitude, the National Hurricane Center, the National Center for Environmental Prediction, the media and public officials must be recognized and commended for their early warming. This has resulted in a much lower loss of life than would have otherwise occurred.

• 2. The implication that policy for hurricane preparedness might not be sufficiently effective re land use planning.
  

  Regardless, how, or if, the risk from hurricane landfalls of this type increases in the future, a prudent policy path would be to reduce the risk from all plausible hurricane landfalls. through more effective land use planning.

On the second point: I cannot imagine under what circumstances any civil defence responsibility could justify being negligent in not having adequate and effective land-use planning already in place. This when you have known for years (QED Pielke's book Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society) that hurricanes are going to come rolling inland off the sea with some kind of monotonous cyclical, clockwork regularity, and that land-use planning would make a significant difference to risk mitigation/avoidance. The mind boggles.

On the first point: H-Sandy seems to have been used as a political opportunity. What I have read from various blogs and news outlets is that FEMA was apparently an actual/potential component of the effective response, and yet FEMA appears to be being used as a political football - e.g., FEMA: Did Mitt Call for its Abolition? And Why Does Barack Want to Cut Its Funding?
I cannot conceive of a natural disaster being used as a political opportunity, or civil defence being so cynically used as a political football, in little old NZ. However, I can understand why it might be politically expedient to so use it in the cut-throat politics of the US - though it seems to show an apparently acceptable, cynical and callous disregard for and indifference to human endangerment and suffering, by the Executive, the Administration, and others.
Regardless, I gather that Obama has seemed to come over as "quite presidential" in his handling of the H-Sandy opportunity, whereas the same opportunity has left Romney looking a bit weak after his "Abolish FEMA".

One wonders what might have occurred had H-Sandy not so conveniently eventuated around election-time, and whether the politicians and their mouthpieces in the MSM would have encouraged anyone to give a damn about the human victims of the hurricane.
[/Rant]

[SKA]

http://www.infowars.com/congressman-wants-12-billion-for-fema-and-sandy-added-to-national-debt/
http://www.infowars.com/nyt-on-hurricane-sandy-were-doomed-without-fema-and-big-government/

from second link above:
"A 1992 study by the Cox Newspapers Group found that during 1982-1992 FEMA’s budgets included only $243 million for disaster relief but $2.9 billion for black ops, according to Harry Helms, author of Inside the Shadow Government: National Emergencies and the Cult of Secrecy.

“Not only is it the most powerful entity in the United States, but it was not even created under Constitutional law by the Congress,” writes Harry V. Martin."

Ska

[J-Mac]

Vague Sentence alert: "In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane." - In what context was Sandy not a Hurricane? When it intercepted the second front?

I think you might have misread that. It didn't say it wasn’t a hurricane; it said it wasn’t as strong a hurricane.    

Jim

[SKA]

Wave of looting and theft takes hold in areas hardest hit by superstorm Sandy
http://www.naturalnews.com/037773_looting_superstorm_Sandy_theft.html

Ska

[J-Mac]

My family and I were one mile from where Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992, and within the north eye wall. 164 mph sustained winds and a gust measured at 212 mph. It was unbelievably powerful and resulted in some things that I didn't think were even possible or within the laws of physics. Scariest night of my life, including my service in Vietnam. FEMA was completely invisible. I never saw a trailer or vehicle from FEMA. Red Cross was in and out so fast it made me dizzy! To be honest, The Salvation Army gained my eternal respect and support; they set up locations that were kept open and staffed for a few years, continually drove around providing fresh water, food, and clothing, and even offered help with pets.

No sign of FEMA however.

Jim

[TaoPhoenix]

Vague Sentence alert: "In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane." - In what context was Sandy not a Hurricane? When it intercepted the second front?

I think you might have misread that. It didn't say it wasn’t a hurricane; it said it wasn’t as strong a hurricane.   

Jim

Now I'm even more lost!    Saying it is not as strong as a hurricane is the same thing as saying it wasn't one, right? How can it simultaneously be a hurricane and not as strong as one?

[app103]

Back from my vacation to the 19th century. It was kind of fun! Played a LOT of board games with the family.

We had enough fun that we are going to institute a weekly family board game night.

My daughter went to sleep before the power was restored, so she doesn't know she is going to wake up back in the 21st century.

Also discovered that popovers are the perfect low fat baked item for making during an extended blackout. They come out best when you use room temperature eggs and room temperature milk, both of which can be mixed up with powdered versions and your stored bottled water. 

As far as damage goes, my town still has a lot of downed power lines and there was quite a bit of flooding down by the river. A few people I know will be out of a job indefinitely due to their place of employment being severely damaged. And one friend had an unspecified amount of damage done to his home, when a large tree fell on it.

We were originally quoted as Monday being the date of power restoration for us, but really happy that it is back on 5 days ahead of schedule.

Really glad I was prepared for this, packed the freezer and fridge full of bottles of water, and loaded cans of fruit in the fridge to take up as much of the empty space as possible, when I ran out of bottles. There was enough large "blocks" of ice in my freezer that even though I was without power for 2 days, and opened the freezer a few times to check on things, not even the ice in the ice cube trays melted and the ice cream remained firm.

[Ath]

Great to see you back on-line, April!

[Carol Haynes]

Glad you survived your time trip, April- and in style  So sorry for all the devastation surrounding your town but life and health are more important than things! (I suppose that is easy for me to say though - don't wish to sound glib).

[mouser]

Welcome back app!  So glad to hear you weathered the storm.

[J-Mac]

Vague Sentence alert: "In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane." - In what context was Sandy not a Hurricane? When it intercepted the second front?

I think you might have misread that. It didn't say it wasn’t a hurricane; it said it wasn’t as strong a hurricane.   

Jim

Now I'm even more lost!    Saying it is not as strong as a hurricane is the same thing as saying it wasn't one, right? How can it simultaneously be a hurricane and not as strong as one?

No - not nearly the same. You need to look up definitions of hurricanes and strengths!

Jim

[tomos]

Yaah App,
welcome back

The 19th century doesnt sound half bad, I'm trying to get away from the net evenings myself - life seems so much more enjoyable then

[tomos]

@Tao -
I think you're missing the important 'as' in that sentence:

"In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane."
that equals:
Sandy was not as strong a hurricane as Hazel.
-
Which means that they were both hurricanes - but Hazel was stronger.

Geddit

[40hz]

We have grid and net again. After three and a half days with everything off, the house now seems noisy and hot. How quickly we adapt!

Of course there always has to be some wrinkle to make it uniquely Connecticut.

This time it's Bill Finch, the mayor of Bridgeport ("The Park City"), our lovely neighboring post-industrial community, who made a public statement yesterday blaming the power utilities for favoring the surrounding "wealthier" communities when restoring power. This has neatly turned the ongoing outages into a class warfare issue. Hardly surprising since Bridgeport politicians have been spinning that line since the 80s. Point the finger outside - always outside - the city's borders. It plays well with certain constituencies they answer to.

Unfortunately, with schools closed, there are large numbers of kids out roaming the streets yesterday and today. And it's Halloween week. And now it looks like Mr. Finch may have kicked the proverbial hornet's nest...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

BRIDGEPORT, Conn. (WTNH) -- Mayor Bill Finch says UI is ignoring Bridgeport because people who live there aren't as wealthy as other cities and towns in Fairfield county.

"I don't feel we're getting our fair share from UI," said Mayor Finch. "I drive around my city and I see very few crews."

The frustrated Mayor says the city's children and low income residents cannot afford to go long without power.

"The critical needs of the region and the critical needs of the poorest people in the region are here and they need extra help," said Mayor Finch.

"We're all really struggling and this makes it worse because we have to throw food away, we're in the dark, some people don't have candles or flashlights because they can't afford it," said Tonya Shelton.

"Can you afford to get new food," asked News 8's Ali Reed.

"Of course not," Shelton replied, "they give me $32 a month for food stamps."

She's worried people will get desperate. Police and the National Guard are out monitoring the streets to prevent looting.

"We don't have anything," said Sylvia Campos.

"Do you have the money to go out and get new food," Reed asked.

"No. No, we are like homeless," said Campos.

A United Illuminating spokesman tells News 8 that "no one is given preferential treatment. Every city and town we service gets to put together a list of 10 priorities they feel should be the first places to have power restored."

The Mayor says his top priority is getting power back to the schools so students can get back into the classroom.

My GF works for the state's social services department. Word from her office is the mood is very ugly in the reception area today...

So it goes.

[Renegade]

This time it's Bill Finch, the mayor of Bridgeport ("The Park City"), our lovely neighboring post-industrial city, who made a public statement yesterday blaming the power utilities for favoring the surrounding "wealthier" communities when restoring power. This has neatly turned the ongoing outages into a class warfare issue. Hardly surprising since Bridgeport politicians have been spinning that line since the 80s. Point the finger outside - always outside - the city's borders. It plays well with certain constituencies they answer to.

Oh! I know about that game! I heard it somewhere else... where was it? Oh, yeah. Here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yeA_kHHLow

Very brief prediction for the near future

Watch very carefully over the next few days & weeks. We will have the politicians/think tanks come out with "solutions". Each and every one will strip just a little more freedom away... just a little bit... ever so "tiny"... because we all want to be "safe", right?

[40hz]

@Ren - re: above prediction - you nailed it I think.  

Ok...now off to see if any new supplies are available after I check up on the elderly couple living next door. Last time this happened we got power back after 5 days, only to lose it 12 hours later when some transformers blew, and then be out for two more days...

Onward!

[TaoPhoenix]

@Tao -
I think you're missing the important 'as' in that sentence:

"In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane."
that equals:
Sandy was not as strong a hurricane as Hazel.
-
Which means that they were both hurricanes - but Hazel was stronger.

Geddit

Oh my gawd, you're right. My mind played an awful Halloween trick on me! : (  Once I'm actually reading the sentence that is actually there, I agree with you. Sorry everyone for the fuss.