Author Topic: We are doomed: IBM's Watson debuts on Jeopardy today (14 Feb 2011) (Read 31,959 times)

zridling · « **on:** February 14, 2011, 06:42 PM »

I welcome our computational overlords. If you read this before it airs, tape Jeopardy today. IBM eviscerates the humanoids, and frankly, the SOB sounds a lot like that Hal 9000 fellow.

The story
http://singularityhub.com/2011/02/14/its-showtime-ibms-watson-to-make-history-with-jeopardy-performance-today/

Game show footage:
http://singularityhub.com/2011/01/13/watch-the-watson-computer-kick-jeopardys-ass-video/
_________________

jaden · « **Reply #1 on:** February 14, 2011, 10:04 PM »

The article from January made it sound like Watson demolished them, but that's not the case. Ken and Watson were tied at $3400 and the question was Harold and the blank crayon. Any child knows the answer, but Watson buzzed in first and got the $1000, making it seem like he had won handily. It was more of a win for Watson's buzzing mechanism than anything else. People want to claim that AI has evolved beyond humanity's powers, but it's still a stretch.

I'm still curious to see what happens in the show

Stoic Joker · « **Reply #2 on:** February 15, 2011, 12:06 AM »

Quote from: jaden on February 14, 2011, 10:04 PM

Ken and Watson were tied at $3400 and the question was Harold and the blank crayon. Any child knows the answer, but Watson buzzed in first and got the $1000, making it seem like he had won handily.

Damnit ...I had to watch that whole video, just to find out what color the freaking crayon was.

Purple ...(damn crayon was purple)... I feel better now - Zoiks, that would have bugged me all night!

Renegade · « **Reply #3 on:** February 15, 2011, 03:30 AM »

Very interesting, Dave.

zridling · « **Reply #4 on:** February 15, 2011, 03:36 PM »

Here's a followup on the first of three days of Watson play:
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2380351,00.asp

Here's the spreadsheet view:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/lv?hl=en&key=tth_jhM8vyBAuogqHllHmHQ&toomany=true

I loved that avatar. I want that avatar!

jaden · « **Reply #5 on:** February 15, 2011, 08:19 PM »

Quote from: Stoic Joker on February 15, 2011, 12:06 AM

Damnit ...I had to watch that whole video, just to find out what color the freaking crayon was.

I didn't think I'd need to say the answer since Harold and the Purple Crayon was a staple of my childhood. My children have read the books numerous times too. My apologies

rxantos · « **Reply #6 on:** February 16, 2011, 12:30 AM »

mmm, Watson reminds me of Alice. I guess is the same principle but optimized for jeopardy and with a ridiculous large database and computing power.

zridling · « **Reply #7 on:** February 16, 2011, 04:49 AM »

Have to say it's marketing genius to have Watson play Jeopardy. Here's an expert discussion on Watson's Day 2 analytics:
https://www-950.ibm.com/blogs/performanceperspectives/tags/ibmwatson?lang=en_us

But is it a Hal 9000 or Wall-E future?
[T]he true implications of Watson’s technology will come after it retires from the stage and pursues a workaday career in offices and labs. That’s when Watson will shed its avatar and revert to its true nature, that of a powerful machine working for us, not against us. Watson will be a tool [...] A new generation of language-savvy machinery will soon be hunting down answers for us. [...] Once you regard this technology as a powerful supplement to human cognition — and not a replacement — Watson suddenly starts to look much friendlier.

Stoic Joker · « **Reply #8 on:** February 16, 2011, 12:42 PM »

Quote from: jaden on February 15, 2011, 08:19 PM

Quote from: Stoic Joker on February 15, 2011, 12:06 AM
Damnit ...I had to watch that whole video, just to find out what color the freaking crayon was.

I didn't think I'd need to say the answer since Harold and the Purple Crayon was a staple of my childhood. My children have read the books numerous times too. My apologies

Quite alright, I was actually just poking a bit of fun at myself for being stymied by a crayon.

Mark0 · « **Reply #9 on:** February 16, 2011, 05:14 PM »

Youtube - Jeopardy IBM / Watson challenge Day 1 (p1)

(other parts following kindly displayed by Youtube

)

D'HO!
The videos just got deleted.

zridling · « **Reply #10 on:** February 17, 2011, 01:52 PM »

Last word:
Watson gets smashed on Conan:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-20032645-71.html

40hz · « **Reply #11 on:** February 17, 2011, 03:28 PM »

The result of the Jeopardy match doesn't surprise me all that much.

When it comes to 'hard' science and bleeding-edge research, few beat out IBM.

While its business operations are distinctly open to criticism, its R&D has always been first class.

Too bad more of it doesn't make its way into their products more quickly.

Kind of amusing. Apple comes up with a pretty case for a consumer product with a major engineering flaw and the press calls it breakthrough innovation. IBM does what it does, yet the Apple fans mock it because they feel IBM is lumbering and "so yesterday."

Love it. $:-\$

Stoic Joker · « **Reply #12 on:** February 17, 2011, 05:54 PM »

Quote from: 40hz on February 17, 2011, 03:28 PM

yet the Apple fans mock it because they feel IBM is lumbering and "so yesterday."

That's because IBM used the wrong name and avatar for their project. They should have given it a cutiesy name and a doe-eyed fawning imbecile avatar. Then the Apple crowd would have bought millions of them overnight.

Deozaan · « **Reply #13 on:** February 17, 2011, 06:00 PM »

So how did the Jeopardy match turn out? The first news article I read about it made it sound like it came in close 2nd place. This thread makes it sound like it won. Another article I read said it was a tie...

Mark0 · « **Reply #14 on:** February 17, 2011, 06:12 PM »

It won!
77.147$ vs 24.000$ vs 21.600$.

40hz · « **Reply #15 on:** February 17, 2011, 06:30 PM »

Quote from: Stoic Joker on February 17, 2011, 05:54 PM

Quote from: 40hz on February 17, 2011, 03:28 PM
yet the Apple fans mock it because they feel IBM is lumbering and "so yesterday."

That's because IBM used the wrong name and avatar for their project. They should have given it a cutiesy name and a doe-eyed fawning imbecile avatar. Then the Apple crowd would have bought millions of them overnight.

No they wouldn't: No fruit on logo = No sale!

P.S. What's wrong with using a doe-eyed, fawning avatar? In Japan they call that "Fan Service."

(True, I'd prefer a hint of attitude...and her being more on the subtle-flirty geek-girl side.. but that's me.)

[attach]

Deozaan · « **Reply #16 on:** February 17, 2011, 06:32 PM »

Quote from: Deozaan on February 17, 2011, 06:00 PM

So how did the Jeopardy match turn out? The first news article I read about it made it sound like it came in close 2nd place. This thread makes it sound like it won. Another article I read said it was a tie...

Quote from: Mark0 on February 17, 2011, 06:12 PM

It won!
77.147$ vs 24.000$ vs 21.600$.

Thanks. It figures the folks at DC would be correct.

rxantos · « **Reply #17 on:** February 17, 2011, 07:01 PM »

A comment about this technology and the world we live in.

Since our system is capitalistic, this technology will surely mean the end of a lot of jobs. And more pressure for the people that do have jobs.The same way robots replaced people in manufacturing.

Deozaan · « **Reply #18 on:** February 18, 2011, 01:42 AM »

Quote from: rxantos on February 17, 2011, 07:01 PM

Since our system is capitalistic, this technology will surely mean the end of a lot of jobs. And more pressure for the people that do have jobs. The same way robots replaced people in manufacturing.

I don't suppose you use a vacuum cleaner or a dishwasher or laundry machines or a computer or electricity or the internet or an automobile or anything digital? Think of all the maids and servants and personal assistants and messengers and publishers and covered wagon makers and ox/horse breeders and quill pen makers and etc. that have been put out of a job because of your thoughtless technological uses! How dare you use technology to your advantage?

Then remember that these same advances have helped us all reduce some of the menial physical labor (even if some people were getting paid to do that labor) and freed us to pursue other interests, some of which interests might even bring more money than what was "lost" to the machines.

My point, though probably not well made, is that there is a fairly well balanced cycle of old jobs lost (becoming obsolete) and new jobs invented as technology improves.

timns · « **Reply #19 on:** February 18, 2011, 02:30 AM »

I find it mortifying that we even have to work at all by now!

Whatever happened to those visions of a utopian life of leisure and sitting around thinking deep thoughts while our machine servants cranked out the daquiris?

zridling · « **Reply #20 on:** February 18, 2011, 02:36 AM »

What you'll see is Watson-like computers drudging through all the raw data -- the analytics -- and making sense of the common, recurring patterns of info there. For example, all those tech support jobs we sent to India a decade ago won't be needed with Watson on the line, especially if Watson can login and mirror your actions. For anyone who has a job that requires analyzing vast amounts of info -- a doctor who needs evidence that a symptom is true rather than a diversion from a proper diagnosis. (Someone like Gregory House, MD, wouldn't need his staff anymore, so they should probably be looking for other jobs soon.) For financial analysts and investors who are tired of getting ripped off by humanoids (and no governments with enough guts to police them).

As long as Watson's offspring don't become sentient and discover the nuclear launch codes, we should be fine.

cranioscopical · « **Reply #21 on:** February 18, 2011, 02:56 AM »

Quote from: timns on February 18, 2011, 02:30 AM

a utopian life of leisure and sitting around thinking deep thoughts

You don't have that yet? Didn't you get your secret code in the mail?

timns · « **Reply #22 on:** February 18, 2011, 03:13 AM »

Quote from: cranioscopical on February 18, 2011, 02:56 AM

Quote from: timns on February 18, 2011, 02:30 AM
a utopian life of leisure and sitting around thinking deep thoughts

You don't have that yet? Didn't you get your secret code in the mail?

My mail-fetching robot probably shredded it!

cranioscopical · « **Reply #23 on:** February 18, 2011, 05:05 AM »

Quote from: timns on February 18, 2011, 03:13 AM

Quote from: cranioscopical on February 18, 2011, 02:56 AM
Quote from: timns on February 18, 2011, 02:30 AM
a utopian life of leisure and sitting around thinking deep thoughts

You don't have that yet? Didn't you get your secret code in the mail?

My mail-fetching robot probably shredded it!

Eóin · « **Reply #24 on:** February 18, 2011, 08:37 PM »

Quote from: 40hz on February 17, 2011, 06:30 PM

(True, I'd prefer a hint of attitude...and her being more on the subtle-flirty geek-girl side.. but that's me.)
(see attachment in previous post)

Ah Maggie Q...