Desktop Linux: The dream is dead

[Josh]

Despite phenomenal security and stability--and amazing strides in usability, performance, and compatibility--Linux simply isn’t catching on with desktop users. And if there ever was a chance for desktop Linux to succeed, that ship has long since sunk.

Over the past few years, modern Linux distributions such as Ubuntu have utterly transformed the open-source desktop user experience into something sleek and simple, while arguably surpassing Windows and Mac OS in both security and stability. Meanwhile, the public failure of Windows Vista and the rise of the netbook gave Linux some openings to capture a meaningful slice of the market. But those opportunities have been squandered and lost, and Linux desktop market share remains stagnant at around 1 percent.

I should emphasize that I'm not by any means talking about the demise of Linux itself. New projections from the Linux Foundation credibly show that demand for Linux on servers will outstrip demand for all other options over the next few years. And, as I'll discuss at length in this article, Linux has already established itself as a dominant operating system on mobile and embedded devices ranging from tablets and phones to TVs and printers.

More at source

[ljbirns]

Over the past few years, modern Linux distributions such as Ubuntu have utterly transformed the open-source desktop user experience into something sleek and simple,

I disagree.  About 5 years a go I had an old desktop compute whose HD had died.  I put a new HD in and installed Ubuntu because of the buzz for Linux.  I wanted to learn and the best way was to install and play with it.  I found it much more difficult than Windows. Installing programs was I found particularly difficult.  I am fairly computer literate
( back in the late 70's I could program in TI Basic for our companies TI 990 ) but Ubuntu was just too much trouble for me, and I suspect, for the average user.

[Eóin]

5 years is a long long time in Linux land. Things really have improved.

[Gwen7]

linux primarily failed at desktop success because it refused to knuckle under and accept being loaded with DRM enforcement software? and the public would rather live with DRM than force the media giants to rethink their strategies?

that's about the conclusion you might expect from a *pc* focussed website like pcworld/uk. :-))

i think the general public's indifference about which os it's using combined with the inertia of sticking with what you already know best has more to do with it. otherwise there wouldn't be half so many win xp holdouts.

[ljbirns]

5 years is a long long time in Linux land. Things really have improved.

You mean I should try again ?  I still have the old computer.

i think the general public's indifference about which os it's using combined with the inertia of sticking with what you already know best has more to do with it. otherwise there wouldn't be half so many win xp holdouts.

The general public doesn't care what OS they are using as long as what they are using is easy for them to use and does what they want done.
My guess is the XP holdouts are more about cost of changing to Win 7 ( not Vista since Vista was universally panned )  since XP  does what they want and need.
So until ttheir XP system dies they will stick with it.

[steeladept]

I would say yes, you definitely should try again.  5 years ago it wasn't THAT bad, but it has come a long way since.  My version of the failure of Linux is on multiple fronts, but it basically boils down to applications.  While there are tons of them out there, and most are free, few are truly easy to use and even fewer are user friendly.  Couple that with the lack of real support when there are issues and you get people just completely turned off the idea before they see the value.  I do think it will eventually come to parity with Windows, but not in the near future.

Actually that is not true.  What I see is standardization taking place to the point that you will not really see a significant difference between OS's.  In the mean time, applications will become increasingly web based to the point that the OS doesn't matter much and by then all systems will boil down to whatever is installed - if anything.  I could even see it where the browser is part of the BIOS and automatically connects when started.  If the connection fails, it is just an unusable piece of hardware sitting there until there is a connection again.  Just like when the TV signal goes out...

[sword]

My recent, last six months, experiences with Linux have been very enjoyable. Previously, 1995-2005, I had a terrible time, mostly with hardware detection problems. I found Ubuntu okay but limited for what I wanted to do. KNOPPIX is great and Puppy, 'lupu-500', is even better. The group on the Puppy forum is great. I like the concept of a simplified OS with selectable extras. The ability to recompile a CD or USB for a specific job is nice. I liked DOS and Windows 2000 Pro but I don't like Windows XP. I'm just waiting for something like MASM to merge with Linux 'Live'.

[Stoic Joker]

If the connection fails, it is just an unusable piece of hardware sitting there until there is a connection again.  Just like when the TV signal goes out...

Now there is a horrifying (albeit quite plausible) view of the computing future ... I'll have to go back to being a mechanic.


@sword - Okay, Puppy is fun to play with. I've still got a virtual copy of it from back when I was playing with misc. Linux distros awhile back. I like Slackware, but I haven't much luck with it.

[Rover]

Is this news?  I thought the Desktop PC was dead 2 or 3 years ago...

Red Hat’s, Brian Stevens, claims that the desktop is dead. This may seem a trifle premature, but from my own perspective, that has already been the case for several years.

2007 Article:  Is the Desktop Dead?

More fine articles discussing the PC corpse:
Dead Desktop -Linux

Most of these were before the iPad came along...   The Desktop must be really dead now.   

[Armando]

"Great" title. The article isn't that bad, but the title is soooooo childish.

[zridling]

Not a bad article, but its author, Strohmeyer, makes the same mistakes others make:

Linux = Ubuntu
. . . . . . NOT! Equating Ubuntu as the sole representative of "Linux" is rookie writing.

Linux desktop must "compete" with Windows/Mac
. . . . . . Huh? It's effing FREE. It's a hobbyist's [desktop] OS.

Linux doesn't run Flash, DVDs, do video streaming, etc.
. . . . . . Strohmeyer hasn't used Linux in a long while, it seems. It does NOT run MS Office, but he left that one out.

Linux basically has no chance to rival Mac OS X, much less Windows
. . . . . . Didn't know anyone was actually "selling" boxes of the Linux OS on store shelves. Even Dell hid their few Linux PCs very well on its site. Yet Strohmeyer admits that Linux (kernel) is embedded everywhere, including most mobile devices. (But it's still a failure if he says so.)

It's essentially a troll article from its topic headers:
-- "Dream Is Dead"  "Missed Opportunities"  "Linux Failed on the Desktop"  "End of the Road"  "[Linux] Desktop is Dead"

__________________
Where Strohmeyer is right is that the browser assumed the primary role of computing over the OS. But he's a few years late to that insight. I continue to be amazed at the passive/aggressive hostility toward a free OS -- that various people and companies maintain on their own -- found in the professional media. Lighten up, use what you want. He sounds like a Mac guy since he didn't mention Microsoft's dominance on... uh... the desktop.

[Edvard]

So what next?
My Linux Desktop ain't going anywhere and as soon as I upgrade, it'll be even better.
(Yeah, it's Ubuntu... sue me.)
Pads/phones/netbooks/etc are just crippled versions of Desktops no matter how you slice it.
Sure, more and more folks now have Laptops as their main computer since the price has come down and the power has gone up, but it's still a desktop, just more portable.
Cloud computing may be the wave of the future, but it's still not much more than a whole lot of conversation and 'big ideas'.
Like Steel said, when the entire operating system is nothing but kernel, drivers, and a web interface that boots from BIOS, maybe THEN we will have arrived.

Damn, I'm all out of troll snacks...

[Renegade]

This is dead. That is dead. Blah blah blah.

These kinds of articles come out all the time, and while they are entertaining, that's about all they are usually.

I actually like Ubuntu far more than OSX. It's friendlier and works better. OSX is pretty buggy.

[Armando]

This is dead. That is dead. Blah blah blah.

These kinds of articles come out all the time, and while they are entertaining, that's about all they are usually.

I actually like Ubuntu far more than OSX. It's friendlier and works better. OSX is pretty buggy.

[Stoic Joker]

I actually like Ubuntu far more than OSX. It's friendlier and works better. OSX is pretty buggy.

Granted I do avoid all things Apple like a plague, but I do occasionally encounter them in the field from time to time. OSX (Snow Leopard specifically) network printing "support" is an absolute train wreck.

CUPS (standards-based, open source printing system developed by Apple Inc. for Mac OS® X and other UNIX®-like operating systems) worked flawlessly on a dozen or so Linux distros I was playing with at the time ... However it could not manage to successfully toss a page from OSX to a printer in less than a half an hour. Apples "support" forum (kinda/sorta) admitted to the existence of the issue, but offered nothing useful beyond that.

[Renegade]

CUPS (standards-based, open source printing system developed by Apple Inc. for Mac OS® X and other UNIX®-like operating systems) worked flawlessly on a dozen or so Linux distros I was playing with at the time ... However it could not manage to successfully toss a page from OSX to a printer in less than a half an hour. Apples "support" forum (kinda/sorta) admitted to the existence of the issue, but offered nothing useful beyond that.

THAT is funny!

My major mac problems are it's inability to cleanly network with anything or to shut down cleanly (I always need to hard reset the machine). Meh...

[f0dder]

5 years is a long long time in Linux land. Things really have improved.

You mean I should try again ?  I still have the old computer.

Perhaps - just don't expect miracles, the current slick and easy-to-use distributions are heavier than the distributions 5 years ago... so if the hardware is really old, you'll probably still be limited to some of the "techier" and not-so-pretty but more lightweight distros. I tried both Ubuntu and Mint (which is Ubuntu-based) on a p4-celeron 1.4GHz with... uh... "some amount" (>512meg) of RAM, and it's a clusterfsck disaster. But hey, you wouldn't expect running Vista or Win7 on that hardware (interesting idea, though, if the GPU is capable enough to get CPU work offloaded - it would make a big difference on that slow box). Even XP has a pretty hefty footprint, unless you're running a really old service pack.

The right OS for the job, and the right hardware for the OS

[40hz]

The right OS for the job, and the right hardware for the OS

Amen! 

[Josh]

Sorry for the nostalgia, but I am reminded of this video:

Video

[Eóin]

I found Zenwalk to be the best distro for my 700Mhz PIII with 128mb ram, the laptop came with Win2k, and struggled with XP. A quick check of the site shows it still holds true to those principles, and it's looks super slick.

These days though I run Ubuntu on newer machines myself.

[f0dder]

I found Zenwalk to be the best distro for my 700Mhz PIII with 128mb ram, the laptop came with Win2k, and struggled with XP. A quick check of the site shows it still holds true to those principles, and it's looks super slick.

Looks decent - too bad there isn't any (easy-to-find, at least) "about zenwalk" page... like, short design philosophy blurb, highlights of the standard system packages, choice of windowmanager/desktopenvironment (looks like Enlightenment from the screenshots), etc... would make it easier to judge if it's worth giving a try, without hunting through the wiki

Looks like it's in active development, that's a plus. I'm a bit wary of the smaller linux distros, would suck ending up with something that doesn't have regular (package) updates, or where development suddenly dies. Anybody remember the slackware crisis when Volkerding was ill? Or been stuck on a system where package updates felt pretty random? (Archlinux, I'm looking at you - was a pretty nice experience apart from the packages, though... and their "pacman" package manager was pretty good proof that linux filesystems are affected by fragmentation )

[ljbirns]

Perhaps - just don't expect miracles, the current slick and easy-to-use distributions are  heavier than the distributions 5 years ago... so if the hardware is really old, you'll probably still be limited to some of the "techier" and not-so-pretty but more lightweight distros.

256 K  ram  1.0  Celeron processor  came with XP installed

[Renegade]

Sorry for the nostalgia, but I am reminded of this video:

Video

That was awesome~!

[mateek]

It was the final minute of play.  I study Hebrew full time on my own on a TV website with subtitles (usually).  I played with Windows 7 on one of my half broken Thinkpad T23's (Pentium3 era IBM, they are all I use outside my home PC) until I was confident I should put it on the one I dedicate for carrying around and hot spots, etc.  I'm all set up, hang my router out my window here in my apartment building, get comfortable on the shady bench, plug in my earbuds, and........no video.  Just sound.  Hmm, a plug in problem?  Video acceleration settings?  I should specify that the only video having trouble is on that particular webpage that uses a Windows Media Player plugin.  The other installed 7 on my other T23 is working fine on that webpage and with every other file as well.  I had the same positive results with a few 'trial runs' with a boot CD.  When I exhausted all my repair options, I was almost resigned to spending September - October studying indoors. 

Then I saw an article about Ubuntu's new netbook edition recently. I'd been playing with the OS over the years, but the last time I got stuck when trying to get my wireless PCMCIA cards recognized and WPA working.  I said to myself, "Well, if 7 installed on one of these pieces of junk and is working better than XP, why not give this 10.10 netbook edition a try?"  That was almost a critical error.  When I did install and try to start that edition the boot timed out and probably never found any hardware recognizable.  However, after a frustrating hour for not having my glasses on I finally noticed on the bottom bar was a drop-up list with the option to boot to a regular Desktop edition, and that...WORKED!!!

I probably shouldn't be so excited, since I can't hibernate, or sleep, or allow a screensaver without wiping the session, but so what?  I'm in the lobby down here replying to this thread, and not stuffed into my apartment tonight.  All of a sudden I might even be able to sell a few of these T23s to someone with low standards like me one of these days.

I went from thinking of Ubuntu as some sidelight to fiddle with to my bread and butter OS overnight.

ljbirns, I would definitely give it a try, and I'd love to hear how things go.

Josh, that video was , ty!

[delwoode]

It's the programs stupid!

I only stick with windows (xp) because the big program makers, (among my fav. progs are ADobePhotoshop and premiere) dont make progs for linux varieties.  I know you can slip into some sort of emulation etc. but I am not interested in having to do that every time I want to use photoshop!  If a few of the big prog makers made a version for linux I would have changed long ago. As it is I doubt I ever will