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I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten
wraith808:
I'd dispute that figure above, which is why I don't really count it as already there currently
-wraith808 (September 24, 2020, 10:21 AM)
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Why would you dispute it?
It ought to be a simple calculation. Investors paying $9m for ? = $200m valuation means ? = 4.5% of the enterprise, post investment. Always possible it was actually $9m for 5% of the business as it was, in which case the calculation ought to have been (9x20)+9 = 189 which is still pretty close.
Not seen anything about other conditions, options etc though I'd expect there are some. But it's hard cash he's already spending.
You can't get a better test of value than people paying hard cash for something.
-Dormouse (September 24, 2020, 11:20 AM)
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Yes, you can. Remember the DotCom bust? That was caused by that kind of thinking. Basically, you look at revenues over time to see the worth of a company. Though they haven't published their revenues, the numbers required for a 200m valuation don't add up, especially since they just started seriously charging for the product. This is more speculative than based in any sort of concrete market theory.
Dormouse:
central banks are pumping money into economy like crazy
-panzer (September 24, 2020, 10:32 AM)
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Yes, though not so much in Europe.
The key is that they are probably just printing that money, but they've arranged it so that the money can be unprinted thereby creating an uncertainty about the value of the money in the future.
The mechanisms have meant that a great deal has flooded directly into the markets, so valuations have risen in money terms.
The value of money has dropped, but most people haven't realised it yet from an everyday life point of view. And they may never see the usual consequence since the deflationary pulse is so strong. So most prices could stay about the same.
And in Europe even medium term interest rates are negative.
The rise in prices is justified to the extent that money is worth less, so the businesses must be worth relatively more. But there seem to be a lot of new investors who don't know what they're doing. They are acting like the typical private investor in Chinese markets.
And many companies are only staying 'afloat' because of the sea of cheap debt holding them up and central banks' money keeping the wheels of the economy turning.
Dormouse:
you look at revenues over time to see the worth of a company
-wraith808 (September 24, 2020, 11:52 AM)
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If you try to do this, you will end up losing money.
Sales are part of the picture.
Profits, if you are able to work out what they really are, make another part.
Assets a third.
But if you buy a business, you will never get the sales or profits it made in prior years. You only have a right to what will happen in the future, so you have to predict.
The stock market, especially tech, had been too high for a few years before the dot.com bust. Buying at the top always loses you money for a few years however well you try and calculate value. Despite that, if you'd held a balanced portfolio of tech stocks then till now, do you really think you'd be poorer now?
The thing to remember about emerging industries is that it is very hard to predict which businesses will be the big winners. Some will stutter, some will meander, but most will fail.
The Roam valuation is based simply on an evaluation that they might be a big winner. $9m is nothing to get in at the base level. The investors will be aware it will probably fail, but they know that the small number of bug winners more than pays for the losers.
wraith808:
you look at revenues over time to see the worth of a company
-wraith808 (September 24, 2020, 11:52 AM)
--- End quote ---
If you try to do this, you will end up losing money.
Sales are part of the picture.
Profits, if you are able to work out what they really are, make another part.
Assets a third.
But if you buy a business, you will never get the sales or profits it made in prior years. You only have a right to what will happen in the future, so you have to predict.
The stock market, especially tech, had been too high for a few years before the dot.com bust. Buying at the top always loses you money for a few years however well you try and calculate value. Despite that, if you'd held a balanced portfolio of tech stocks then till now, do you really think you'd be poorer now?
The thing to remember about emerging industries is that it is very hard to predict which businesses will be the big winners. Some will stutter, some will meander, but most will fail.
The Roam valuation is based simply on an evaluation that they might be a big winner. $9m is nothing to get in at the base level. The investors will be aware it will probably fail, but they know that the small number of bug winners more than pays for the losers.
-Dormouse (September 24, 2020, 12:29 PM)
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I know how it works, working at a financial reporting institution. I'm just saying that the 200m valuation is high based on the fact that we do know. And standards indicate that it is a percentage of the sales+assets-liabilities over a period of time. It's a standard and known fact.
Dormouse:
I'm also thinking about switching my rooms from tags into folders.
The original reason for tags was flexibility and speed. And that it would be most effective to keep everything in one folder (vault).
But I've been learning to appreciate a lot of value in Obsidian's capability with nested vaults. This means that I can have everything in one overarching vault, but still keep the nested sub-vaults separate. And i can have a couple of vaults in the middle too. And I can work either in a sub-vault or the overarching vault, or both together in separate windows. Maximal linking in the overarching vault. Graphs to be viewed separately in each vault.
Just an idea until I've tested it out more. Has the advantage that folders map better on to my room analogy. Also removes the tension between these tags (strict categories) and all my other tags which are 'fuzzy'.
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