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I'm thinking of going primitive, with discursion into zettelkasten

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Dormouse:
the standard valuation of a company is 4 times revenue, and they aren't making $50m a year.
-wraith808 (September 20, 2020, 05:53 PM)
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That very much depends on the company and prospects (and a host of other things).
Look at the current value of Snowflake

superboyac:
WHOA
-superboyac (September 20, 2020, 02:06 PM)
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You have to remember that no-one actually thinks it's worth $200m.
You have a group of investors placing a $9m bet that it will actually be worth a lot more. With Roam's owners trying to give away as little as possible in exchange for circa $10 m.

The key to the price was the success of the believers scheme and $15 a month subscription.

What happens next will depend on how successfully Roam deploy the money.
First steps seem to be teams (collaborations) and an API.
-Dormouse (September 20, 2020, 04:31 PM)
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AH!  thanks, yes that is revealing.
The thing they are investing in is the feature users want the least, at least users like us.
I feel like the logic is:
Many of us want something where our files are agnostic.  Hence markdown text files.
But for the business to work, it needs to be subscription.
But that probably means agnostic files is not going to be a primary feature.
So then it better have some other great features, which it does.
But is that enough to get people to give subscription money?
Not necessarily, because the whole point was to get an agnostic system.  It's not like we were looking for these new features initially.  Otherwise, if we don't care about the files, we can use any number of systems with cool features.  The whole things counter-productive to me.

Dormouse:
I don't know.
For my money, now that it has its foot in the door, I think it will get to being a $ billion company.

Conor has a vision, he's good at convincing people. I think the vision centres on collaborative and shared development of human knowledge. But he (wisely) keeps detailed ideas to himself.

The thing they are investing in is the feature users want the least, at least users like us.
-superboyac (September 20, 2020, 06:20 PM)
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I don't think he has any significant interest in users who are interested in files. Or markdown. He's interested in knowledge and believes it is built better by people sharing (and I'd have to say there's any number of Obsidian users who just want to put their vaults on the web). I think he's aiming at being the primary host for that endeavour.

And, shorter term, teams are good for revenue - corporates will pay a lot more than individuals who are mostly good for creating the buzz. Look at the Trello and Notion business models. And their valuations.

At this point, I'd be more interested in investing in Roam than using it myself. I have concerns about some of things Conor says and does - but that's never held Elon back.

wraith808:
the standard valuation of a company is 4 times revenue, and they aren't making $50m a year.
-wraith808 (September 20, 2020, 05:53 PM)
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That very much depends on the company and prospects (and a host of other things).
Look at the current value of Snowflake
-Dormouse (September 20, 2020, 06:04 PM)
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That's why I said standard.  Even with variations, they wouldn't be worth that much.


For my money, now that it has its foot in the door, I think it will get to being a $ billion company.
-Dormouse (September 20, 2020, 07:24 PM)
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I have my doubts about that.  It might come in somewhere at the 100s of millions, but I don't think $ billion is in the cards.

Dormouse:
It might come in somewhere at the 100s of millions
-wraith808 (September 20, 2020, 08:12 PM)
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Already there.
Notion is at $2bn.
Trello was sold to Atlassian for $425m over 3 years ago. Tech valuations have rocketed since then.
Evernote reached $1bn in 2011 before it took its eye off the ball.

Conor's vision is a big one. It will either reach over $1bn or crash. The odds being on crashing which is why the current valuation is only $200m. I'm certain all the investors believe it has a reasonable chance of reaching the billions, because the reward would not balance the risks otherwise.

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