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The end of the hard disk
JavaJones:
Relevant:
http://www.techspot.com/news/61090-researchers-publish-first-large-scale-field-ssd-reliability.html
There are now at least 3 studies on SSD reliability that I'm aware of. The above link discusses/mentions 2. The third is discussed here:
http://www.extremetech.com/computing/201064-which-ssds-are-the-most-reliable-massive-study-sheds-some-light
Note also that most of these studies are - by necessity - performed on older drives. The trend may not be toward higher reliability, but generally speaking that is more likely than a trend toward lower reliability as the technology matures.
- Oshyan
superboyac:
I will be shocked if these predictions come true. That is, if SSD's have capacities like 8TB or 16TB in 2016, I will be very shocked. I'm talking at a reasonable cost, even enterprise cost. anywhere under $1000 will be shocking to me. Second, I will also be shocked if enterprise level applications will forego getting SSD's to replace mechanical drives by 2016. For example, if cloud storage providers start using SSD's like that, I will be very surprised.
Not saying it's not possible, just that a jump like that so soon would be crazy. Have we just been sitting on the technology all this time?
Deozaan:
Not saying it's not possible, just that a jump like that so soon would be crazy. Have we just been sitting on the technology all this time?-superboyac (June 25, 2015, 03:43 PM)
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It could be a recent breakthrough in SSD technology that enables them to be produced much more efficiently/cheaply. But I'm just pulling that out of thin air. I have no evidence that that's what has happened.
xtabber:
I will be shocked if these predictions come true. That is, if SSD's have capacities like 8TB or 16TB in 2016, I will be very shocked. I'm talking at a reasonable cost, even enterprise cost. anywhere under $1000 will be shocking to me. Second, I will also be shocked if enterprise level applications will forego getting SSD's to replace mechanical drives by 2016. For example, if cloud storage providers start using SSD's like that, I will be very surprised.
Not saying it's not possible, just that a jump like that so soon would be crazy. Have we just been sitting on the technology all this time?
-superboyac (June 25, 2015, 03:43 PM)
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To be honest, I also find that time line unrealistic -- tech writers have a habit of making overly optimistic predictions -- but even if it takes a few years more, the writing is on the wall for the HDD, except as an inexpensive long-term storage device.
Intel is the major supplier of PCIe board SSDs to major data center users, and their most recent prediction is that they will have 10TB enterprise class SSD boards available by 2018.
Intel already sells 1.2TB PCIe boards for under $1,000 in bulk. 2TB boards now cost several times as much, but that should change quickly as other vendors start to compete in that space. SanDisk has announced that they will be selling an external 2TB SSD in a portable HDD form factor to the consumer market for under $1,000 this year.
A variety of new flash memory technologies are poised to drive the price/capacity ratio down dramatically. What is holding them up is the ability to manufacture them reliably in large quantities, but a lot of really big players (Intel/Micron, SanDisk, Samsung, Toshiba) are competing fiercely to get there first.
Joe Hone:
My impression has been that the failure characteristics of SSDs leaves something to be desired -- catastrophic loss of everything with no chance of recovering even a small amount seems unfortunately much more likely than common HDD failure scenarios (admittedly I have no numbers to point to). -ewemoa (June 23, 2015, 04:47 PM)
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I have the same reservations but last fall when both of my business PCs failed at about the same time I took the plunge and went with mini PCs for replacements (Gigabyte Brix and Compulab Fit), using only SSD internally running Windows 7. With hundreds of hours of use and large amounts of data transferred, including dozens of different software programs, neither one has so much as burped. But I still backup daily (using Bvckup) to HDD external drives in the event of catastrophic SSD failure. Online computer stores have been blowing out storage like WD My Passport 2TB external drives for under $70 US. I figure with HDD external drives that cheap and Bvckup constantly updating them the benefit of SSD speeds is worth the risk.
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