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Blog Essay: The Indie (Game) Bubble Is Popping

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mouser:
Rock, Paper, Shotgun continues to be a great site for thoughtful commentary on videogames.  Today they point to a long blog essay on independent game developers, and the idea that we've seen a growing trend of indie games that has reached its apex, producing an unsustainable number of generic low-quality games, which is making it harder to find quality projects.

Indie gaming started out as games written with passion for people who embraced and loved them. Now too much of it is about churning out giant mounds of decent but undifferentiated product to be bought for pennies by people who don't give a crap either way. It's not sustainable...

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http://jeff-vogel.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-indie-bubble-is-popping.html





from http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2014/05/25/the-sunday-papers-315/

TaoPhoenix:

Just speaking about quantities vs gamer time to play games, I was noticing a lot of that wandering around the Ludum Dare results. At just under 2500 entries, you have to glance at the thumbnails and make quick judgements. So for example with a very low sets of actual dev time spent, that's a cumulative 100,000 game dev time in total!

40hz:
You're seeing the same thing happening with music and literature.

You have a large influx of B-grade and C-grade "talent" glutting the market. (See Kickstarter for some truly cringe-worth examples.) And that's because "everybody has a million dollar hit song or book inside them" according to the people who run those $1500/2-day seminars that "teach you the top secret techniques the pros use." And those that don't charge (i.e. NaNoWriMo) but merely encourage large numbers of the highly motivated and sincere (but still untrained and largely untalented people) are also feeding that glut.

Once you have a market glut and the quality (inevitably) declines significantly, the product quickly becomes generic - and a commodity item. Before long you see the entire market living with generic and commodity level prices.

Professionals cannot compete with low-ball amateurs on price or quality. (Repeat that 3 times.) Low-ball amateurs can, however, quickly force out the professionals - who need to make a living from their craft - and charge appropriately to do so. Excess amateurs in a field do this by lowering standards and reducing customer expectations to the point of indifference, Eventually, the market arrives at the point where the price becomes the only real selection criteria. Because the market is so loaded with junk that most buyers no longer expect (or get) very much for their money.

You'll see this in mature markets all the time: Crap drives out quality. Lower quality results in lower prices. Lower prices necessitates compromise, and attracts amateurs into the field, further lowering overall quality. Lower overall quality produces more crap. Repeat.

Sad state of affairs. But nothing new. It's just finally caught up with the game industry. :(

ewemoa:
You have a large influx of B-grade and C-grade "talent" glutting the market.
-40hz (May 25, 2014, 08:02 AM)
--- End quote ---

Once you have a market glut and the quality (inevitably) declines significantly, the product quickly becomes generic - and a commodity item. Before long you see the entire market living with generic and commodity level prices.

Professionals cannot compete with low-ball amateurs on price or quality. (Repeat that 3 times.) Low-ball amateurs can, however, quickly force out the professionals - who need to make a living from their craft - and charge appropriately to do so. Excess amateurs in a field do this by lowering standards and reducing customer expectations to the point of indifference, Eventually, the market arrives at the point where the price becomes the only real selection criteria. Because the market is so loaded with junk that most buyers no longer expect (or get) very much for their money.

You'll see this in mature markets all the time: Crap drives out quality. Lower quality results in lower prices. Lower prices necessitates compromise, and attracts amateurs into the field, further lowering overall quality. Lower overall quality produces more crap. Repeat.

Sad state of affairs. But nothing new.

--- End quote ---

Do you know of a nice term/phrase to describe this sort of process?  I've been looking for such a thing -- hoping for something as nice as the phrase "Streisand effect" (ofc that's for a different process!).

Renegade:
You're seeing the same thing happening with music and literature.

You have a large influx of B-grade and C-grade "talent" glutting the market. (See Kickstarter for some truly cringe-worth examples.) And that's because "everybody has a million dollar hit song or book inside them" according to the people who run those $1500/2-day seminars that "teach you the top secret techniques the pros use." And those that don't charge (i.e. NaNoWriMo) but merely encourage large numbers of the highly motivated and sincere (but still untrained and largely untalented people) are also feeding that glut.

Once you have a market glut and the quality (inevitably) declines significantly, the product quickly becomes generic - and a commodity item. Before long you see the entire market living with generic and commodity level prices.

Professionals cannot compete with low-ball amateurs on price or quality. (Repeat that 3 times.) Low-ball amateurs can, however, quickly force out the professionals - who need to make a living from their craft - and charge appropriately to do so. Excess amateurs in a field do this by lowering standards and reducing customer expectations to the point of indifference, Eventually, the market arrives at the point where the price becomes the only real selection criteria. Because the market is so loaded with junk that most buyers no longer expect (or get) very much for their money.

You'll see this in mature markets all the time: Crap drives out quality. Lower quality results in lower prices. Lower prices necessitates compromise, and attracts amateurs into the field, further lowering overall quality. Lower overall quality produces more crap. Repeat.

Sad state of affairs. But nothing new. It's just finally caught up with the game industry. :(
-40hz (May 25, 2014, 08:02 AM)
--- End quote ---

Bingo.

I see this all the time.

A lot of products/services have the bar set low and become commodities.

A similar concept is Gresham's Law - "Bad money drives out good".

Competent professionals drop out of some markets because it is no longer worth their time to compete there, and consumers are left with crap until they start squawking. There are some examples, e.g. Consumers sick of toxic & GMO food > there are now organic & bio-dynamic options if people look. But, they are more expensive.

The question is whether or not a premium can be set for quality games. But... being digital, they're easy to reproduce...

I think that there needs to be a more holistic approach to games than there is now. Most are focused on platforms, SDKs/APIs, & software. Hardware is often left out, as are other accessories. There is a lot that can be done there. Bringing the game "out of the device" is where I see room for innovation in gaming.

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