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FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010 - A Contest For Best Predictions?

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Lashiec:
EA's own simulation agrees with your initial findings, mouser. My rarely used national pride is betting hard on that outcome as well ;D

ljbirns:

mouser:
i think i ma have used an earlier version of yours in my first example, ljbirns.
btw it would be nice to crop your screenshot.

ljbirns:
Thanks  Mouser
  Cropping is not my strong suit   

mouser:
unfortunately lj, your predictions don't make for a very appealing bet.  although there is a 9x expected payoff from a couple of bets, which is fantastic, the actual chance of those teams winning are so low that it's very unlikely you'd win.  though the honduras bet is attractive at 1000 to 1, if they really did have a 1% chance of winning.  plus it would sure be a nice story to tell if they won :)

i think the other example run i showed is from rgdot.  his predictions have a more attractive clear bet, on germany -- in the sense that if his predictions are right you have a pretty good chance of making a reasonable profit.

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