DonationCoder.com Software > WorldCup Predictor

FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010 - A Contest For Best Predictions?

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mouser:
The FIFA 2010 World Cup Predictor page has been online and available for use for a few months now.
The url is: https://www.donationcoder.com/wcp/index.html

It's an example of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, and is focused on determining the best bets to make on the competition, by looking for bets where the teams have better predicted chances of winning than the current odds-makers are assessing.

The heart of the prediction system is taking simple pairwise team match-up predictions, and using these to simulate millions of tournaments and then calculating expected payoffs.

However, for the system to be useful, it relies on having knowledgeable people making these large numbers of "pairwise team match-up predictions."

Rather than try to come up with a single best set of these pairwise predictions, the page let's anyone create and edit and simulate the tournament using their own set of pairwise predictions.

I'd like to have a contest to see who can come up with the best pairwise prediction estimations.  Note that this isn't the same as predicting the overall winner, and it's definitely not the same as advising who to bet on.  It's very likely in fact that the predicted winning team will NOT be one that the script advises should be bet on.


So.. what i thought would be nice is to have a contest to see who does the best job of estimating these pair-wise match-up predictions.  These predictions basically require you to estimate the final score that is likely to result for every combination of 2 teams in the tournament play each other (yes there are a lot of potential match-ups!).

You create and edit your predictions from this page: https://www.donationcoder.com/wcp/go/
And then you can simulate the tournament and get betting advise as you go.

As far as a contest goes, what I'd like to do is offer a $250 prize to the person who comes up with the best set up match-up predictions PRIOR to the tournament start.  On the starting day of the tournament I will take a copy of all of the saved ratings files and at the end of the tournament compare who was most accurate in there pairwise matchup score predictions when the two teams met.

Additionally, anyone who wants to enter needs to reply to this thread and ask that their ratings be considered.

This is one of those things where not many people know about this software, and it's all in good fun -- so please if you know someone who is a fan of the world cup and considers themselves somewhat experienced, please pass them the link to this thread.  I'd love to get some feedback and see people try to take it seriously.  Please help spread the word!

rgdot:
Spreading the word and participating too :)

And by the way Forza Italia, not that I think they have the team to win but still

mouser:
I think the prize money is probably the least interesting thing about entering.. Most of the fun is in seeing how one's pairwise match-up predictions effect overall tournament predictions and betting advice.

Although i'm not a gambling man by nature, in the interest of scientific inquiry, if there are a number of good ratings entries into the contest, i will authorize the betting of a few hundred dollars based on the ratings submitted, and we'll hand the money back out to the entrants in some fashion.

More than anything i just want to believe that the work that went into building this tool is actually put to use :)

Maybe we can give out a few mugs to some entrants as well.

mouser:
ps. If you do plan on creating a ratings file and entering it -- you will want to have a forum account and log into this forum so that your ratings file is protected from someone else modifying it.  if you are recognized only as a "guest" then your ratings file will be publicly editable.

rgdot:
Doing it for fun, not any prize, because my bias always and almost entirely unconsciously gets the best of me any way  :P

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