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Which prize would you choose?
app103:
Either choice is a free ticket, not only for you, but everyone else involved, too. There are two drawings, and you can only choose to enter one of them. Whichever choice most people make reduces the odds on winning that prize.
I am most interested in the justification behind your choice. Why would you choose the prize you did?
JavaJones:
Well, I thought at first "most people will choose the $1000, so I'll get better odds with the $250", but then I realized $250 isn't really that much money, so I might as well go for something that I'd actually appreciate. Does that make me greedy? :D
- Oshyan
Target:
FWIW, I'd go for the 1000
I wouldn't expect to win, but on the off chance that I did 1000 beats 250 any day (and I'd consider my chances to be equal in either draw)
parkint:
I would choose neither.
I don't believe in sweepstakes (aka gambling) and never participate. Afterall, by never expecting something for nothing I am NEVER disappointed!
Eóin:
Is this supposed to be a logic/behavior problem as people are suggesting? Are you trying to second guess the other entrants and chose the drawing fewest of them would have opted for the increasing you chances of winning?
In that case I'd go for $250, seems likely to me that the vast majority would opt for $1000.
Of course if any more that 20% select the $250 draw then your expected return in a math sense is higher by entering the $1000 draw.
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