Our book Pielke, R.A., Jr. and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their nature and impacts on society (https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/b-11.pdf). John Wiley and Sons, England, 279 pp. is available as a pdf. The material is not updated for more recent storms (since 1997) but the recommendations and information on tropical cyclones may useful in the discussion of the impacts of Sandy. Of particular interest related to such late season hurricanes is the text on Hurricane Hazel (1954) where we wrote thatHazel joined with another storm system to devastate inland communities from Virginia to Ontario, Canada. Washington, DC experienced its strongest winds ever recorded……..In 1954, Hurricane Hazel…..underwent a similar rapid acceleration to a speed of 60 mph (27 meters per second), as strong south to southwesterly winds developed to the west of the storm. Hazel crossed the North Carolina coastline at 9:25 am on 15 October, and reached Toronto, Canada only 14 hours later where it resulted in 80 deaths (Joe et al. 1995). At that time, it was the most destructive hurricane to reach the North Carolina coast. Every fishing pier was destroyed over a distance of 170 miles (270 km) from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Cedar Island, North Carolina. All traces of civilization were practically annihilated at the immediate waterfront between Cape Fear and the South Carolina state line.We reported that
__________________“….tropical cyclones can become absorbed into developing mid-latitude storms thereby infusing added moisture and wind energy from the tropical cyclone and resulting in a more intense mid-latitude storm than otherwise would occur.Clearly, this later behavior is what made Sandy a much stronger storm than either a mid-latitude or hurricane would have been separately. In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane. It also tracked towards the west as it interacted with the developing mid-latitude storm rather than accelerating northward as Hazel did. This resulted in the large fetch of easterly and southeasterly winds into northern New Jersey, Long Island and New Your City which produced the large storm surge.
__________________
Our book also discusses the impacts of tropical cyclones which includes extreme winds, storm surge, tornadoes, flash flooding and riverine (i.e. large river) flooding. The analysis has yet to be completed, but I suspect that storm surge will attributed, by far, to largest economic damage.
Also, with a storm of this magnitude, the National Hurricane Center, the National Center for Environmental Prediction, the media and public officials must be recognized and commended for their early warming. This has resulted in a much lower loss of life than would have otherwise occurred.
Also, with a storm of this magnitude, the National Hurricane Center, the National Center for Environmental Prediction, the media and public officials must be recognized and commended for their early warming. This has resulted in a much lower loss of life than would have otherwise occurred.-IainB (October 31, 2012, 05:59 PM)
Regardless, how, or if, the risk from hurricane landfalls of this type increases in the future, a prudent policy path would be to reduce the risk from all plausible hurricane landfalls. through more effective land use planning.-IainB (October 31, 2012, 06:20 PM)
Vague Sentence alert: "In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane." - In what context was Sandy not a Hurricane? When it intercepted the second front?-TaoPhoenix (October 31, 2012, 06:16 PM)
Vague Sentence alert: "In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane." - In what context was Sandy not a Hurricane? When it intercepted the second front?-TaoPhoenix (October 31, 2012, 06:16 PM)
I think you might have misread that. It didn't say it wasn’t a hurricane; it said it wasn’t as strong a hurricane. :)
Jim-J-Mac (October 31, 2012, 10:21 PM)
Vague Sentence alert: "In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane." - In what context was Sandy not a Hurricane? When it intercepted the second front?-TaoPhoenix (October 31, 2012, 06:16 PM)
I think you might have misread that. It didn't say it wasn’t a hurricane; it said it wasn’t as strong a hurricane. :)
Jim-J-Mac (October 31, 2012, 10:21 PM)
Now I'm even more lost! :huh: Saying it is not as strong as a hurricane is the same thing as saying it wasn't one, right? How can it simultaneously be a hurricane and not as strong as one?-TaoPhoenix (November 01, 2012, 02:30 AM)
BRIDGEPORT, Conn. (WTNH) -- Mayor Bill Finch says UI is ignoring Bridgeport because people who live there aren't as wealthy as other cities and towns in Fairfield county.
"I don't feel we're getting our fair share from UI," said Mayor Finch. "I drive around my city and I see very few crews."
The frustrated Mayor says the city's children and low income residents cannot afford to go long without power.
"The critical needs of the region and the critical needs of the poorest people in the region are here and they need extra help," said Mayor Finch.
"We're all really struggling and this makes it worse because we have to throw food away, we're in the dark, some people don't have candles or flashlights because they can't afford it," said Tonya Shelton.
"Can you afford to get new food," asked News 8's Ali Reed.
"Of course not," Shelton replied, "they give me $32 a month for food stamps."
She's worried people will get desperate. Police and the National Guard are out monitoring the streets to prevent looting.
"We don't have anything," said Sylvia Campos.
"Do you have the money to go out and get new food," Reed asked.
"No. No, we are like homeless," said Campos.
A United Illuminating spokesman tells News 8 that "no one is given preferential treatment. Every city and town we service gets to put together a list of 10 priorities they feel should be the first places to have power restored."
The Mayor says his top priority is getting power back to the schools so students can get back into the classroom.-Story in case you're interested
This time it's Bill Finch, the mayor of Bridgeport ("The Park City"), our lovely neighboring post-industrial city, who made a public statement yesterday blaming the power utilities for favoring the surrounding "wealthier" communities when restoring power. This has neatly turned the ongoing outages into a class warfare issue. Hardly surprising since Bridgeport politicians have been spinning that line since the 80s. Point the finger outside - always outside - the city's borders. It plays well with certain constituencies they answer to.-40hz (November 01, 2012, 07:40 AM)
@Tao -
I think you're missing the important 'as' in that sentence:
"In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane."
that equals:
Sandy was not as strong a hurricane as Hazel.
-
Which means that they were both hurricanes - but Hazel was stronger.
Geddit :tellme:-tomos (November 01, 2012, 06:53 AM)
They DID give preferential treatment when restoring power to various neighborhoods around here, and continue to, but for VERY GOOD reasons. They restored parts of towns that were considered more important than others.-app103 (November 01, 2012, 01:56 PM)
Unfortunately, in our current "gimmee" culture, some people will routinely have trouble understanding the difference.-40hz (November 01, 2012, 02:21 PM)
Unfortunately, in our current "gimmee" culture, some people will routinely have trouble understanding the difference.-40hz (November 01, 2012, 02:21 PM)
And that falls right into what I said about bringing out the best in some people and the worst in others.-app103 (November 01, 2012, 02:27 PM)
1. We still ain't ready worth a damn.-40hz (November 02, 2012, 09:04 PM)
2. Voluntarism during emergencies may become a thing of the past.-40hz (November 02, 2012, 09:04 PM)
3. You can't expect rational or responsible behavior from some elected officials when the chips are down.-40hz (November 02, 2012, 09:04 PM)
@Ren - re: above prediction - you nailed it I think. ;D-40hz (November 01, 2012, 09:31 AM)
@Ren - re: above prediction - you nailed it I think. ;Dhttp://thetimes-tribune.com/opinion/w-b-ponders-martial-law-1.1396770-40hz (November 01, 2012, 09:31 AM)
:(
Even the thought...-Renegade (November 04, 2012, 07:48 AM)
The reliance on "the state" to take care of people is pretty much delusional.-Renegade (November 02, 2012, 10:01 PM)
Because it takes too much effort to bust every single flaw the pol's produce. We shouldn't have to audit every line our politicians say. That's already the wrong path.-TaoPhoenix (November 04, 2012, 01:50 PM)
The solicitation was amended less than four hours later for providers to provide a quote of four million meals, preferably of the self-heating variety.
^^The solicitation was amended less than four hours later for providers to provide a quote of four million meals, preferably of the self-heating variety.
Meanwhile, goodwill from regular people is rejected at nursing homes...-Renegade (November 04, 2012, 08:04 PM)
And senior centers. ;)-40hz (November 04, 2012, 08:23 PM)
...Meanwhile, goodwill from regular people is rejected at nursing homes...Yes, but that's not the point. The point seems to be that the State (in the shape of FEMA) will provide disaster relief processes, and the relief itself, or whatever is required in such circumstances.-Renegade (November 04, 2012, 08:04 PM)
The point seems to be that the State (in the shape of FEMA) will provide disaster relief processes, and the relief itself, or whatever is required in such circumstances.-IainB (November 05, 2012, 07:23 PM)
It is not a part of the process and will only confuse the heck out of an otherwise orderly management of things in the midst of chaos.-IainB (November 05, 2012, 07:23 PM)
If the disaster relief - e.g., food - arrived too late such that some people starve to death or become ill before it arrives, then that would be unfortunate.-IainB (November 05, 2012, 07:23 PM)
@40hz: Sorry. I just edited my last comment with the addition of [/sarc] ("sarc off").-IainB (November 06, 2012, 02:30 PM)
"In contrast to Hazel, however, Sandy was not as strong a hurricane."-tomos (November 01, 2012, 06:53 AM)
1. Stock in hand: In the 1980's, we had all kinds of bothersome business intellectuals blathering on about "just in time" manufacturing and warehousing and all kinds of stuff. Great. Now we have a situation where if there is any kind of a hiccup in the system, everything shuts down. No reserves. No stockpiles.My explanation:
2. Urbanisation: Then, we have people crammed into tiny subsections of tall boxes.
3. Silliness: Then, we have government telling us that if you have enough food in your house to last more than 1 week, you're a terrorist.
Everything is stacked against people.
That is, unless you want to look into "prepping" or "preppers".
4. Economic externality: So, we have a society that is geared towards ensuring that people cannot be prepared for a natural disaster, and we have the economy geared towards ensuring that business cannot be prepared for a natural disaster...
And now we're left to rely on the "state"?-Renegade (November 06, 2012, 07:07 AM)
In the 1980's, we had all kinds of bothersome business intellectuals blathering on about "just in time" manufacturing and warehousing and all kinds of stuff. Great. Now we have a situation where if there is any kind of a hiccup in the system, everything shuts down. No reserves. No stockpiles.- you are describing the reality of institutionalised ignorance of the worst kind - self-inflicted ignorance. That is, we have the full knowledge of how to set up and run all and any of our processes for optimum results, but that knowledge has not been passed on (or taught) to members of society. There are apparently some philosophical and not-invented-here reasons for this, but that could be another discussion in itself.
Then, we have people crammed into tiny subsections of tall boxes.Yes we do, and I gather that censuses show that the urbanised population on the planet numbers larger than the rural population. It used to be the opposite, but that all started to change when the migration from rural areas commenced during the British Industrial Revolution. Now it seems to be largely unavoidable, planetwide. We'll have to adapt to living like this, and I think the evidence is that we have done/are doing quite well in that regard. In the UK and the US they have demonstrated some egregious mistakes/lessons in city planning since the '60s at least, though the UK arguably learned from those lessons and leapfrogged those problems when the plan for the new city of Milton Keynes was drawn up, with council/State housing even embodying the Parker Morris 1961 minimum space standards (http://www.singleaspect.org.uk/pm/index.php) (per the 1961 government report titled Homes for Today and Tomorrow and more commonly known as the Parker Morris standards).
Then, we have government telling us that if you have enough food in your house to last more than 1 week, you're a terrorist.If we treat it as given (from the foregoing) that commercial processes are generally likely to be relatively efficient because of the necessary commercial focus on cost-efficiency + production efficiency, then this silliness would seem to be the product of variously inefficient or broken processes operated by the State - i.e., including State and commercial processes that are governed/mandated by statutory/regulatory dictates that are subject to the law of unintended consequences. For example, if you have a government policy of "green energy" that subsidises investement in and building of wind-farm power generation, then you are going to kill an awful lot of fauna (birds and insects), reduce the average cost-efficiency of national power generation, and increase the national/local cost/price of electricity (QED). Oops. We might say that we wouldn't want/expect that all to happen, but it is so obvious and predictable an outcome (and environmentalists and others had been telling us these things all along) that you might think that only an imbecile would go ahead with it. Oh, but wait...
Everything is stacked against people.
That is, unless you want to look into "prepping" or "preppers".
So, we have a society that is geared towards ensuring that people cannot be prepared for a natural disaster, and we have the economy geared towards ensuring that business cannot be prepared for a natural disaster...If a disaster is man-made by a commercial organisation - e.g., environmental pollution - then that is usually regarded as an "externality" by the commercial organisation, and very often the costs for clearing the mess up are regarded as society's costs, the commercial operation not accepting responsibility. The taxpayer pays.
And now we're left to rely on the "state"?
The "Seven Deadly Diseases" include:
- Lack of constancy of purpose
- Emphasis on short-term profits
- Evaluation by performance, merit rating, or annual review of performance
- Mobility of management
- Running a company on visible figures alone
- Excessive medical costs
- Excessive costs of warranty, fueled by lawyers who work for contingency fees
"A Lesser Category of Obstacles" includes
- Neglecting long-range planning
- Relying on technology to solve problems
- Seeking examples to follow rather than developing solutions
- Excuses, such as "our problems are different"
- Obsolescence in school that management skill can be taught in classes[27]
- Reliance on quality control departments rather than management, supervisors, managers of purchasing, and production workers
- Placing blame on workforces who are only responsible for 15% of mistakes where the system designed by management is responsible for 85% of the unintended consequences
- Relying on quality inspection rather than improving product quality
Who would'a thunk it? :tellme-IainB (November 17, 2012, 10:45 AM)
I know it was an alien plot to meant to mask the departure of that giant submerged UFO 100 miles off the coast of New Jersey. :Thmbsup:-40hz (November 17, 2012, 10:59 AM)
I know it was an alien plot to meant to mask the departure of that giant submerged UFO 100 miles off the coast of New Jersey. :Thmbsup:-40hz (November 17, 2012, 10:59 AM)
Crap! My family left without me! :o-app103 (November 17, 2012, 11:05 AM)
I know it was an alien plot to meant to mask the departure of that giant submerged UFO 100 miles off the coast of New Jersey. :Thmbsup:-40hz (November 17, 2012, 10:59 AM)
Crap! My family left without me! :o-app103 (November 17, 2012, 11:05 AM)
Hush! Don't let anybody know. They left without paying some bills. ;D-40hz (November 17, 2012, 12:22 PM)
Residents in one Queens neighborhood are crying foul after they were written up for failing to clean up the city’s own mess. It is yet another new complication in life after Superstorm Sandy.
Rosanne and Joe Cavaliere are still trying to clean up from the hurricane.
They have branches through their roof, busted front windows, and, to add insult to injury, they recently received a citation notice from the city.