Welcome Guest.   Make a donation to an author on the site September 17, 2014, 10:40:19 PM  *

Please login or register.
Or did you miss your validation email?


Login with username and password (forgot your password?)
Why not become a lifetime supporting member of the site with a one-time donation of any amount? Your donation entitles you to a ton of additional benefits, including access to exclusive discounts and downloads, the ability to enter monthly free software drawings, and a single non-expiring license key for all of our programs.


You must sign up here before you can post and access some areas of the site. Registration is totally free and confidential.
 
The N.A.N.Y. Challenge 2011! Download 30+ custom programs!
   
   Forum Home   Thread Marks Chat! Downloads Search Login Register  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Reply  |  New Topic  |  Print  
Author Topic: FIFA World Cup 2006 is Over: Italy Wins. Some thoughts on the Predictor tool.  (Read 7927 times)
mouser
First Author
Administrator
*****
Posts: 33,356



see users location on a map View Profile WWW Read user's biography. Give some DonationCredits to this forum member
« on: July 10, 2006, 05:38:35 AM »

Some thoughts on the World Cup Predictor and FIFA 2006 World Cup

IT'S ALL OVER: World Cup 2006 has ended, with Italy victorious.

It's been a great tournament in my opinion (early rounds especially), with some real surprises. Who would have thought france would go so far, or that Zidane would lose his composure in such an embarassing way.

Did you use the predictor to place bets? The simulator did a fantastic job of recommending bets right down to the semifinals. If you took its advice along the way you would have bets riding on 3 of the last 4 remaining teams (and very few bets on the teams that did not make it).

But there's a reason they call it gambling..

Portugal was one of the few early, consistently, and strongly recommended bets made by the simulator - their odds were as high as 25:1 in the first round. They were the one semi-longshot that the simulator made a strong recommendation to bet on.

We bet $250 using the simulator's advice, betting about $50 each on England, France, Germany, and Portugal, and then a little more on miscelaneous teams. By the semifinals, things looked great. A win by portugal would have netted $1300, by germany, $900, by france, $600.

Italy, however, was not recommended as a good bet by the predictor, because it, like Brazil, had too good a chance of winning in the eyes of betmakers and bettors, and therefore had insufficient odds on their winning.

Portugal was eliminated by france in the second to last game of the tournament, and two beautiful goals by italy in the last minutes of their game against germany brought them into the finals. In the end, it was italy, playing consistently solid throughout the tournament, that won, leaving us with no winnings..

Ah well, that's why they call it gambling.

Despite the lack of winnings - it's hard to argue that the predictor didn't do a great job. After all, remember that the predictor is not trying to guess who will win and advise you to bet on that team. It's trying to recommend bets with the best expected payoffs. This will rarely be the team most likely to win - but rather teams that are under-rated. Given how far germany, france, and portugal advanced, you can't ask for much more from a betting predictor.. Well i suppose you could ask for a win, but in a probabilistic world all you can do is play the odds..
« Last Edit: July 10, 2006, 05:42:58 AM by mouser » Logged
jgpaiva
Global Moderator
*****
Posts: 4,710



Artificial Idiocy

see users location on a map View Profile WWW Read user's biography. Give some DonationCredits to this forum member
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2006, 05:55:58 AM »

I guess that's how betting usually goes, and it looks like the predictor was right, itally was the one with the best odds.
Good thing i'm not a gambler myself, as almost all my predictions for the world cup went down the drain. I thought portugal would lose against england and win france. I guess next time i'll bet on the exact oposite of what i predict Wink
It was a good world cup. Some good games with lots of emotion. I only didn't like the fact that so many games were decided on penalties Sad
Logged

mouser
First Author
Administrator
*****
Posts: 33,356



see users location on a map View Profile WWW Read user's biography. Give some DonationCredits to this forum member
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2006, 06:02:39 AM »

actually the wcp predicted (like many others) that brazil had best chance of winning.. but italy was right up there.
Logged
mouser
First Author
Administrator
*****
Posts: 33,356



see users location on a map View Profile WWW Read user's biography. Give some DonationCredits to this forum member
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2006, 06:03:08 AM »

for a very different take on sports betting, be sure to check out zaine's latest blog:
http://www.thegsblog.com/?p=102
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Reply  |  New Topic  |  Print  
 
Jump to:  
   Forum Home   Thread Marks Chat! Downloads Search Login Register  

DonationCoder.com | About Us
DonationCoder.com Forum | Powered by SMF
[ Page time: 0.034s | Server load: 0.02 ]