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Author Topic: WCP'06 - FIFA World Cup 2006 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tournament Predictor  (Read 11081 times)

mouser

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WCP'06 - FIFA World Cup 2006 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tournament Predictor

NOW LIVE!
http://www.donationcoder.com/wcp/


wcplogoWebS2.png


brought to you by Crono and Mouser.

  8)


« Last Edit: June 06, 2006, 03:59:49 AM by mouser »

Carol Haynes

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Oh - God am I going to have to bow out of DC to get away from football ... WAHHHH!

mouser

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Just a little sample of what kind of results WCP '06 Gives you.
Note this chart is generated dynamically in your browser as it runs on the real page (this is just a screenshot here with my annotations).

PLEASE REMEMBER: this chart here is not generated with real prediction data!!! It's just to give a flavor for the format and use of the results.  These are not real team predictions!


sampleresults.png
« Last Edit: June 03, 2006, 05:52:18 AM by mouser »

mouser

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I'd actually like to put out a call for help..

We would like to find a source of data over the last few years that will give us an estimate of how well each team did when playing against each other team.

That is, we want a table of score showing what the avg match score was when each team played each other team.

Any help in:
1) locating this raw data
and
2) extracting it into a spreadsheet or similar data file form.

mouser

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the program has now gone live:


Visit the page and have some fun learning about Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation.

NOTE: We still need experts to fill out reasonable probabilities for team match ups!!!
Prizes are on offer  :up:

mouser

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if you feel like it, you can help spread the word by "digging" the page here:
http://digg.com/tech...ov_Chain_Monte_Carlo

(if you haven't already signed up for a free digg account.. why not? get going!)