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Knight to queen's bishop 3 - Snowden charged with espionage.
dr_andus:
It seems that others are looking at it in a totally different way.
The Sheremetyevo chapter may be over, but the saga itself will continue. Already, there have been calls by US congressmen that Russia should be held accountable for granting Snowden asylum. There is also little doubt that US president Barack Obama will now cancel his planned trip to Moscow in September.
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-wraith808 (August 02, 2013, 11:12 AM)
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I'm not so sure about this. It depends on who is talking. If it's some right-wing Republican Congressmen who are traditionally Russia-bashers and don't have much stake in the matter and want to cause discomfort to the Obama administration, sure, they'll call for cancelling the trip. They might even be doing it on behalf of the administration (by proxy), to exert some pressure.
The Obama administration is choosing its words much more carefully. They obviously need to show their displeasure, but cutting planned talks would hurt the US administration more than the Russians. It would be a win for Republicans vs. Obama administration, not US v. Russia.
With Snowden, the Kremlin did the moral thing – and the moral thing also happened to be the only thing the Kremlin could do in this instance.
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-wraith808 (August 02, 2013, 11:12 AM)
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I don't believe for a moment that the question of morality ever came into it for Putin... It might be more about not wanting to lose face on the world stage and in front of Russian public. It's now over to Obama. He has to decide whether he can lose face at home and abroad, or stay pragmatic and get on with business with the Russians, after a bit of grumbling...
wraith808:
The Obama administration is choosing its words much more carefully. They obviously need to show their displeasure, but cutting planned talks would hurt the US administration more than the Russians. It would be a win for Republicans vs. Obama administration, not US v. Russia.
-dr_andus (August 02, 2013, 11:52 AM)
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Hmmm...
Obama cancels Moscow meeting with Putin over Snowden
Russia says Obama hurting himself by canceling summit over Snowden
The Snowden crisis is a way for Obama to avoid another icy summit with Putin, political analyst Lilia Shevtsova said.
“Canceling a one-on-one meeting with Putin is an optimal way out of the situation,” Shevtsova, a senior researcher with Moscow Carnegie Center, said. “Russia’s granting Snowden temporary refuge offered Obama a welcome chance not to be involved in yet one more meeting with Putin, but without really any constructive agenda to discuss.”
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dr_andus:
Hmmm...
Obama cancels Moscow meeting with Putin over Snowden
Russia says Obama hurting himself by canceling summit over Snowden
-wraith808 (August 07, 2013, 06:19 PM)
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It seems to me it's another +1 to Snowden. Obama seems to be making the moves that Snowden wanted him to make, which is strategically not a situation you want to be in as a US President...
And another +1 (or potentially +100 or more) to Snowden for actually setting the agenda for legislative change on the NSA etc. and for forcing Obama to have to go on talk shows...
Obama is starting to look more and more like a foreign policy lightweight, and not a very strong strategist either. Maybe he is good at speeches and domestic issues, but many big international issues (Syria, Iran, nuclear disarmament) are being put on the back burner because of this asylum tantrum, while he is forced to respond to developments unleashed by Snowden to his domestic audience.
wraith808:
It seems to me it's another +1 to Snowden. Obama seems to be making the moves that Snowden wanted him to make, which is strategically not a situation you want to be in as a US President...
-dr_andus (August 10, 2013, 06:08 PM)
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How is he making the moves that Snowden wanted him to make? I think that's reading a bit much into Snowden and what he wanted, other than a discussion on the matter. The move with Russia had little to do with Snowden's stated goals, nor with the information released- other than tangential. It was to avoid a conversation that he didn't want to have, and now has a very good excuse to back out of, and snub the Russians in the process, before the G20 summit.
dr_andus:
How is he making the moves that Snowden wanted him to make? I think that's reading a bit much into Snowden and what he wanted, other than a discussion on the matter. The move with Russia had little to do with Snowden's stated goals, nor with the information released- other than tangential. It was to avoid a conversation that he didn't want to have, and now has a very good excuse to back out of, and snub the Russians in the process, before the G20 summit.
-wraith808 (August 10, 2013, 06:24 PM)
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OK, maybe that wasn't the best way to put it. What I was trying to say is that Obama is being made to make moves that he doesn't really want to make (that are not the best moves for him), such as having to go on to talk shows to say there isn't a domestic spying program, having to propose new measures and deal with new legislation to reign in the NSA, and having to cancel his Moscow meeting. Obviously Russia is part of the game now, but initially it was Snowden's decision to reapply for temporary asylum that has led to the cancelling of the trip.
As for Obama cancelling a trip because he feels uncomfortable talking to Putin or that there is nothing to agree on - I don't buy it. There is Syria, there is Iran, there is Afganistan, nuclear disarmament etc., etc. Loads of very urgent issues on which Obama can only make progress if he talks to Putin. Cancelling the trip seems to me partly a move to please Republican Congressmen, partly to appease the NSA and the like, partly to show that the US is a superpower than can cancel meetings with the Russians. Though ironically it comes across as a sign of weakness, as the Russians are just lying back and say, "We don't care, it's not us who desperately wanted this meeting anyway," which just reveals the limitations of the US as a superpower...
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