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Mouser's Election Predictor - A Memory from 2004

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mouser:
On the eve of the 2012 election I thought I would bring up a memory of mine.

This application precedes the creation of DonationCoder by a few months: Released in 2004 was my "Mouser's Election Predictor".

"MEP is a program for estimating the likelihood that a given candidate will win the United States Presidential Election based on estimates of how each state is leaning, and taking into account the electoral college all-or-nothing voting system.  It lets you fill in a table of how likely each state is to vote for a given candidate, and based on these numbers, calculates the odds that the different candidates will win. It can also use poll results to estimate probabilities.  It can be used on election night as states results come in to constantly give you an updated estimate of your candidates chances."

Read the online help file from 2004: here.








Nowadays there are great online sites that run essentially the same Monte Carlo electoral college simulations and show results online, e.g. Nate Silver's 538 Blog.

mouser:
Just wanted to share a bit of history :)

TaoPhoenix:
Heh Mouser you don't want to release an Obama Romney version just for the giggles? :)

Nate Silver is almost as smart as you. (/Brownnose)  ;)

Plus you could make a new category - NANE - New Apps for the New Election!

Renegade:
Heh Mouser you don't want to release an Obama Romney version just for the giggles? :)
-TaoPhoenix (November 05, 2012, 11:48 PM)
--- End quote ---

I was going to ask the same question, but I thought the race was between Goldman Sachs Red Team and Goldman Sachs Blue Team. ;D hehehehe  :P

Renegade:
Nate Silver is almost as smart as you. (/Brownnose)  ;)
-TaoPhoenix (November 05, 2012, 11:48 PM)
--- End quote ---

Found it! I saw an article that went on a bit about Nate Silver's methodology and another methodology:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/presidential-true-vote-election-fraud-forecast-model/5310583

Based on the LV polls, Obama has a 98% probability of winning the Electoral Vote , not 80% as Nate Silver would have you believe. His model is obviously contaminated by extraneous variables. Nate tries to impress with 100,000 simulations. In reality only 500 are necessary to determine the EV win probability.
--- End quote ---

It goes on a bit about methodology and stuff.

What would be interesting is to see models that account for voting fraud based on historical tendencies. My guess is that it would simply be impossible though, with it basically being stochastic, etc. etc.

@mouser - Did your software predict the right outcome? (Accounting for fraud or for the popular vote?)

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