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How Windows 8 hopes to change everything - and likely not for the better.

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40hz:
Easily one of the sanest and best reasoned articles I've seen so far on what Widows 8 promises and threatens for the future of personal computing.

The Next Twenty Years
Why the closed distribution model of Windows 8 must be changed for the sake of developers, consumers, and Microsoft itself.

For the first time in the history of the PC, Microsoft is rolling out a new Windows ecosystem for which they will be the sole software distributor. If you buy Windows 8, the only place you will be able to download software that integrates with its new user interface will be the official Windows Store. Microsoft will have complete control over what software will be allowed there.

Microsoft has stated that applications for the older desktop interface will remain unaffected by these policies. As long as they only use applications that run on the old desktop, users will still be able to buy, sell, develop, and distribute software without interference from Microsoft. Many Windows users have taken this as an assurance that the open distribution model that they enjoy today will still be available in future versions of Windows, and as a result, there has been far less public concern about Windows 8 than there might have otherwise been.

But how realistic is the assumption that the Windows desktop will still be a usable computing platform in the future? And what would be the consequences were it to disappear, leaving Windows users with only the closed software ecosystem introduced in Windows 8? To answer these questions, this volume of Critical Detail examines the immediate and future effects of Microsoft’s current certification requirements, explores in depth what history predicts for the lifespan of the classic Windows desktop, and takes a pragmatic look at whether an open or closed ecosystem would be better for Microsoft as a company.
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Full article here.

Read it!

Carol Haynes:
I still think MS hope to dump the legacy desktop by Windows 9 (or failing that Windows 10) - they are already pushing Office 2013 as a service in not-Metro. Once Office has moved to not-Metro what is left on the Desktop for MS? Big businesses (like Adobe etc) will play along and move to not-Metro just to keep in with MS but the millions of small developers will be left floundering or having to cough up a large part of their profits to MS.

Trouble is Joe Public don't care - they are already moving into the computers as an appliance mode of thinking.

The whole process is going to garner a lot of support from MPAA etc. who will no doubt push to use streaming DRM delivery in not-Metro and iTunes to be the only channels for media delivery in future. They don't care that many people don't have the bandwidth to stream HD content but they will achieve a long-held dream - no desktop apps for playing media and the ability to cut off MS and Apple if they don't restrict the apps you can load onto not-Metro or iOS.

What is the betting Apple replace OSX with iOS within the next few versions?

The article following your article is also a concern:

Because no software can ship on this future platform without it going through the Windows Store, the team that built Skyrim would have to send it to Microsoft for certification. Then Microsoft would tell them if they could ship it.

Do you know what Microsoft’s answer would be?

I do. It would be “no”.

This is not speculative, it is certain. Skyrim is a game for adults. It has a PEGI rating of 18. If you read the Windows 8 app certification requirements you will find, in section 5.1:

Your app must not contain adult content, and metadata must be appropriate for everyone. Apps with a rating over PEGI 16, ESRB MATURE, or that contain content that would warrant such a rating, are not allowed.

And that’s the end of it. No Skyrim for the Windows Store, unless of course the developers go back and remove all the PEGI 18-rated content.
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40hz:
^They'll probably adopt a wait & see to assess how much flack (if any) Microsoft's grand strategy generates.

If the majority of Windows users roll over and play dead, Apple will follow suit and make iOS the MacOS.

After that it's just a matter of Microsoft producing "certified" Windows machines by contracting with big players like Dell and HP in order to put the squeeze on the open OS world when it comes to finding hardware.

Microsoft will get around antitrust by not pulling Windows from everybody else - but they will insist on UEFI - AND "leave it up to the individual manufacturers" how they want to implement it. (Prediction: most manufacturers will eventually lock the UEFI in the name of "minimizing technical support calls" - but will provide an unlock mechanism - except you'll be made to jump through hoops to get the tool to unlock it.)

I don't expect to see much relief to consumers from the US government on this issue. Especially since it's now been fully bought and paid for by big media and other corporate interests.

Simple fact is, the US government (and most other governments for that matter) aren't too happy with all the high powered unrestricted PCs out there. They make hacking and secure encryption doable. They allow for anonymous usage. They drive demand for things  like MegaUpload and Pirate Bay. And they make things like Wikileaks and Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street possible.

It's too much unregulated power in the hands of too many people as far as today's governments are concerned.

Closed software ecosystems and walled gardens are a step towards greater regulation and control in areas where most western governments clearly lack the constitutional authority to regulate. True they can get around it with so-called executive orders or findings that blatantly defy the laws of the land. But that shows a certain lack of style. And could produce a public backlash (or rebellion) if done in too heavy handed a manner. So it's much preferred that a business or non-government entity implements things which effectively destroy privacy and foster greater surveillance and control - but without having that as their stated objective.

Once those mechanisms are in place, a government doesn't have to do anything - except not do anything to regulate or remove them.

That's what's called a "win-win" situation by some people. Mostly those in government and business. :-\

tomos:
So, the future is *nix (?)

40hz:
So, the future is *nix (?)
-tomos (October 17, 2012, 11:29 AM)
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Only as long as you can still get hardware to run it on.

And hopefully there will still be a platform more powerful than a Raspberry Pi (or its single-board cousins) once the dust finally settles.

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