Hard drive shortage

[db90h]

I've had 1 Seagate drive go bad, and it did so with a SMART error about a week after I bought it. I took it to the Seagate service center, and they replaced it instantly.

-Renegade (November 29, 2011, 12:50 PM)

-1 for having a drive go bad, +1 for replacing it = 0 for me ;p.

You are lucky you have a Seagate Service center local enough to take anything to. The entire process of mailing in a warranty on things is so frustrating, I give up. Half the time they send back a refurb unit that has its own problems (at least with other things), so I usually just trash it [anything, e.g. my Nikon glasses lenses that developed an interior crack in 6 months]. Example: Samsung cell phone. Sent it in for replacement. Got back a unit even more defective with a scratch on the camera lens (thanks Samsung). I gave up at that time. Typical of my 'warranty' experiences.

It seems experiences vary. I should note that I've pretty much stuck the last few years to WD's cheap 'Green' line of drives. Perhaps the specific models involved make a difference, perhaps it is just luck. I don't know.

As for that WD model (the WD20EARS and WD20EARX), they provide good speed, good power savings, and are quiet as I've ever heard a 3.5" HDD be. Oh, and they are half the price ;p.

For 2.5" USB powered external drives I've always went with WD too, never had a failure - and have heard people whining about Seagate's, but never WDs.

Sadly, in benchmarks I saw at a site somewhere, the latest model of the WD MyPassport SE 1TB is not as fast as the Seagate FreeAgent UltraPortable 1.0TB (both USB 3.0), but the speed difference is negligible for me. Who knows how reliable that site was though. Since this is my backup drive, I prefer going with who I trust. I am not sure about the 1.5TB model of the Seagate FreeAgent UltraPortable, which holds the crown as the largest 2.5" self-powered HDD made to date.

These 2.5" models i mention are the ones that shot up in price a few days ago. What?!? Did I buy a few WD MyPassport SE 1TB's before they went up? Oh, yea, that's right, I did ;p. I saw (and mentioned here) these prices were not affected, so took action. It was a bet that paid off, for once. Probably end up making a whopping $50 (total of multiple sales) after eBay seller fees and taxes, but it gets me out of the house (to the post office ;p).

Example: Pre-HDD 'shortage' I bought WD MyPassport 1TB for $79 on sale. Normal price was $99 though. When all this happened they stayed at $99 for a month or so (with cheaper deals here and there, got one for $91), so I bought a few. Now they are $169-$199. Sadly, I didn't notice until one suddenly sold for $119 via Buy Now (I was about to give up), and I was like 'WTF?!?'. Then saw the prices changed, came and posted here.

[Carol Haynes]

I have had drives from Seagate, Maxtor and WD go bad - they have all dealt with the issue courteously and professionally.

That isn't really my issue - my problem is that Seagate drives seem to go bad more often. They also have a reputaion for periodically dropping themselves in deep doodoo and releasing whole batches of crap drives - I can think of two models off the top of my head - one that was designed for RAID 0 set ups but actually performed considerably worse in RAID than as single dirves and the other was a bad series of models of the early 1Tb drives that didn't last more than a few weeks or months before dying.

Seagate didn't deal with either of those situations well - what should have been a recall situation turned into a nightmare for many with Seagate being very difficult.

From my perspective I would say that about 50-60% of drives I come across that are dead come from Seagate - maybe they are just more common in mass produced computers but I have only come across a couple of WD drives that have died and they died gracefully with warning.

[db90h]

...

[db90h]

The price for the 2.5" external self-powered USB 3 drive, WD My Passport 1TB SE, has now doubled even at Amazon, with $199-$219 pricing. It has disappeared from eBay, where as last week it was being sold for prices all over the place, from $99 to $250. A month or so ago I had bought 4 of these units to try to profit off this when I first entered this thread. Two I sold at about even, because I wasn't sure they were ever going to up in price after two/three weeks of waiting. Lost a bit on those maybe. One I sold at a small profit, and the last I'll get a decent profit on *if* anyone buys at such a high price.

However, when you throw in eBay seller fees (7-8%), hassle of dealing with buyers who don't pay, or are just dipshits, it is barely worth the return. Also, in my case, a single 'loss' and I'd have lost all profits. If I had thousands of dollars to invest though, and patience and confidence to wait, the return could have been greater. The one thing about these situations is that you are unlikely to lose *much* if prices don't go up, so I wish I'd have maybe found a way to buy more somehow. Of course, that's after I sold 2 of them off not believing they'd ever go up.

Meanwhile, 3.5" drives have *decreased* or remained stable in price. The WD20EARS (or WD20EARX) is now $135 at Amazon.

[Cloq]

Absolutely fantastic.. first higher prices and now they slash the warranty years.

Uh.. I think we want lower prices and higher warranty.. not the other flipping way around!

[superboyac]

Yeah, so my fear is that this is not about the flood, but the start of phasing out the hard drive volume for normal consumers.  More smartphones, more cloud stuff = less need for hard drives = less consumer demand = hard drive prices become more "corporate" = more expensive.

[db90h]

Just as many devices start to go without HDDs, more start to use them -- namely DVRs and all sorts of other multimedia and surveillance equipment. So, I'd relax, prices will stabilize pretty quickly.. The HDD remains an essential component. The competition in the HDD market remains fierce (when everyone is up at the plate). They aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Eventually SSDs will start to match their cost per MB value, then we'll see them fade away, and potentially increase in price. That is at least 5 years off, maybe 10.

[superboyac]

Just as many devices start to go without HDDs, more start to use them -- namely DVRs and all sorts of other multimedia and surveillance equipment. So, I'd relax, prices will stabilize pretty quickly.. The HDD remains an essential component. The competition in the HDD market remains fierce (when everyone is up at the plate). They aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Eventually SSDs will start to match their cost per MB value, then we'll see them fade away, and potentially increase in price. That is at least 5 years off, maybe 10.

-db90h (December 20, 2011, 09:51 PM)

Yes, but you see how those are not "normal" consumer items.  A regular joe doesn't go out to buy a hard drive for a DVR, it just comes with the DVR that the cable company gives them.  Surveillance equipment is not normal...that's totally corporate equipment.  I get your point, and you may be right.  I just am a tad suspicious, and a little more tad paranoid!  In my paranoia, I fear a time when this country approaches socialism, things like hard drives will not be available because of the possibilities they offer on a very low, fundamental level.  For me, the hard drive is the #1 piece of computing equipment.  It's the books in the library.  I love my library the way rich people in centuries past treasured their books in their libraries.

[db90h]

Yes, but you see how those are not "normal" consumer items.

-superboyac (December 20, 2011, 10:51 PM)

Simple, short, and sweet answer is that the manufacturers of devices with embedded hard drives (from PCs to HDDs) will forever demand cheaper hard drives, so they can reduce their retail cost, or increase profits. The consumer may not be directly buying a hard drive when they buy a PC, but they are buying a hard drive. Same with a DVR. Thus, I feel it has no chance of being the 'elite' or 'corporate' type advanced hardware you fear, for at least the next 5-10 years. After that, who knows.

As for socialism, that is a dirty word that can be taken out of context in so many ways that I prefer never use it. We're hard core capitalists here in the USA, even the left-wing people who some call 'socialists'. You can bet on that. Real socialism is a totally different ballgame. Sure, we do have a mixed economy in ways, since we do have social programs, as do all first-world countries. However, nothing much has changed, and it really doesn't matter much who is in office. We are nowhere near socialism, so let's not take out that word. That's my take on things. You can say we are in debt. You can say the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. You can say lots of bad things about the USA, but we simply are not a socialist economy. We are a blended economy, as is most of the world these days. A pure socialist economy is much different than what the USA is.

[wraith808]

As for socialism, that is a dirty word that can be taken out of context in so many ways that I prefer never use it. We're hard core capitalists here in the USA, even the left-wing people who some call 'socialists'. You can bet on that. Real socialism is a totally different ballgame. Sure, we do have a mixed economy in ways, since we do have social programs, as do all first-world countries. However, nothing much has changed, and it really doesn't matter much who is in office. We are nowhere near socialism, so let's not take out that word. That's my take on things.

-db90h (December 20, 2011, 10:56 PM)

QFT.  It's all FUD to a large extent from both sides, to get people frothing at the mouth rabid and unable to look at things rationally.

[db90h]

QFT.  It's all FUD to a large extent from both sides, to get people frothing at the mouth rabid and unable to look at things rationally.

-wraith808 (December 20, 2011, 10:59 PM)

+1 .. heck, we're talking about hard drives, where did this word even come from ;p. I really hate it when the most innocent of social programs (or government regulation to stop abuses like child labor) are called socialist, when we are arguably the most capitalist country in the world. There is no hidden agenda to transform us into a socialist or communist society. It'd be nice if there were at times, to give some counter-balance to our crazy capitalist system where anything goes.. but, it is what it is. I think half those who use the word 'socialism' don't even really understand it to be honest.

[superboyac]

Yeah...I didn't quite mean that seriously.  I was describing my knee-jerk paranoia.  I should have put one of these at the end:   

[PhilB66]

HDD Pricewatch: Three Months Into the Thai Floods

[wraith808]

HDD Pricewatch: Three Months Into the Thai Floods

-PhilB66 (February 08, 2012, 10:43 AM)

Nice article...thanks for sharing!

[Renegade]

HDD Pricewatch: Three Months Into the Thai Floods

-PhilB66 (February 08, 2012, 10:43 AM)

Hmmm... Glad I'm going to Korea next week. I may pick up a few drives there depending on if they've dropped back down there.

Thanks for posting that.

[superboyac]

HDD Pricewatch: Three Months Into the Thai Floods

-PhilB66 (February 08, 2012, 10:43 AM)

Hmmm... Glad I'm going to Korea next week. I may pick up a few drives there depending on if they've dropped back down there.

Thanks for posting that.

-Renegade (February 08, 2012, 11:06 AM)

Can you get me 5 or 10 also?