Facts are not the same as assumptions, no matter what they are based on.
No. But some are so highly probable as to amount to much the same for all practical purposes. The sun may not rise tomorrow. But even though it's an assumption to think it will, I still find it prudent to set my alarm clock each night, just in case.
So I'm not sure why you're dismissing all this as wild assumptions. Hardball is a strategy that's worked very well for Microsoft in the past. Where would it be such a stretch to think they'll likely try to repeat what worked previously for them?
Microsoft is not stupid, no matter what else it may - or may not be.
And as a side note, they have been very vague on exactly what their final plan for all this is. Most of their 'official' responses have been far more interesting for what they haven't said than for what they have.