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Hard drive shortage
IainB:
@db90h:
BUT ... the increase in speculation will decrease the effective supply, as these speculators are going to be parting with their drives for the max they can get. So, the price will rise as major retailers run out of stock, then flatten as the speculators start to unload their inventory, then gradually decrease ... which I explained in a previous post more eloquently. The way back down is not nearly as fast as the rise in prices.
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Well, if I understand you correctly, then I think that what you describe is the classic Supply-and-Demand model.
SpoilerThe price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The diagram shows a positive shift in demand from D1 to D2, resulting in an increase in price (P) and quantity sold (Q) of the product.
The theory does not help us to understand the rate at which things will move up or down relative to each other.
db90h:
The theory does not help us to understand the rate at which things will move up or down relative to each other.
-IainB (November 02, 2011, 06:56 AM)
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Close, but not quite what I'm saying, as the curves will have DIFFERENT SLOPES. The deflation curve will be SLOWER than the inflation curve, substantially... more gradual in its descent.
Specifically, my statement was that due to human greed the prices will not go down as fast as they went up, because the people buying up all the inventory (and even retail stores) are going to want to keep the prices inflated as long as possible... long AFTER the supply has been restored to adequate levels. The competitive pressure will be reduced substantially, though it will eventually force the price back down... slooowwwlly.
Example: It isn't going to drop 50% in a day, like it went up 50% in a day ;)
Another example of where theory doesn't apply in real life as exactly as it does in an economic class.
nosh:
I'm returning a 1TB external WD with bad sectors tomorrow. The warranty still applies so it should be interesting to see how soon I get a replacement. :)
db90h:
I'm returning a 1TB external WD with bad sectors tomorrow. The warranty still applies so it should be interesting to see how soon I get a replacement. :)
-nosh (November 02, 2011, 10:49 AM)
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You stand a good chance now, but in a few weeks.. dunno. I think most of the distributors still have stock, they just trying to set the prices at this time, anticipating no more shipments.
db90h:
Posted yesterday by analyst:
http://www.cnet.com.au/hard-disk-shortage-will-get-worse-piper-jaffray-339326004.htm
"The scarcity of hard disk drives will only get worse in the coming weeks and months, according to an analyst at Piper Jaffray."
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