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Hard drive shortage
db90h:
LOL, all hard drives sold out or doubled+ at almost all big name retailers, locally and online. Speculators are now driving up the prices. How affected the supply really is we won't know for a while...
40hz:
LOL, all hard drives sold out or doubled+ at almost all big name retailers, locally and online. Speculators are now driving up the prices. How affected the supply really is we won't know for a while...
-db90h (October 28, 2011, 06:49 AM)
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Good point. Once the carpetbaggers and opportunists start making a run on the supply, any near-term shortages are likely to be strongly affected by those vermin.
db90h:
Good point. Once the carpetbaggers and opportunists start making a run on the supply, any near-term shortages are likely to be strongly affected by those vermin.
-40hz (October 28, 2011, 07:55 AM)
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Were in not for these speculators, there may be no real supply problem. Given the continual drop in HDD prices we've seen, I would speculate there has been an over-supply. Therefore, a lack of sufficient supply for a short period should not substantially affect prices. I strongly believe all prices have been artificially inflated by the current media circus over this, and am with Intel on this one: As they say, the semiconductor industry proved more resilient than people thought in the aftermath of the Japanese earthquakes. I suspect the same is true here.
Regardless, if you need an HDD in the next 6 months, you may pay a heavy premium for it. Why that long? I'd imagine that prices will be SLOW to decline to previous levels, even after supply has been re-established. Retailers and manufacturers all want to maximize profits. Although no price setting (as in anti-competitive collusion) would likely take place, this natural tendency would slow the competitive effects, and thus keep the prices artificially inflated for a considerable period. This is especially true in markets with few competitors, such as the HDD market.
In fact, given the low profit margin, manufacturers may choose in some cases to intentionally keep supply suppressed, long after they've regained production capacity ;o. Taking advantage of this situation ... I mean, think about it.. if your stuff suddenly was selling for 2 to 3 times what it once was, in a market where your profit margin is so slim you can barely survive, would you be so eager to increase supply? Still, competition will force things back to normal, eventually.. but it will take as long as they can make it take. Each step *down* in price will be slow and incremental.
(UPDATE: Prices have increased at some vendors since this morning. It seems the speculation continues. a WD20EARS (WD Green 2TB) 3.5" internal OEM drive cost as little as $69 prior to this disaster. The highest I've seen it priced is now $279 by a crazy person on ebay, and the average price seems to be $149 and rising - with it being $159 at many vendors).
wraith808:
Wow! I hadn't noticed this... guess I should pay better attention! The HD I just got for my nas for $70 is going for a minimum of $129. 2TB will last for a while, though. Glad I'm ok on space for a while.
db90h:
WD hard drives have now mostly sold out at the larger retailers. Many people have a preferred HDD manufacturer, so this may cause a slight premium in the value of WD drives. Of course, already going for twice what they were, I'm not sure how much higher they may go. One guy on ebay is trying to sell a wd20ears new drive for $279, a drive selling for $139-$159 after price increases at retailers where it isn't sold out. That is a heavy bet for massive inflation beyond what we see now. Of course, that person may simply be .. misguided ;)
Of course, many of these retailers may not be actually sold out, but rather waiting to see if the price further increases before offering the drives up for sale again, as I speculated above.
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