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FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010 - A Contest For Best Predictions?

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mouser:
a smart thing to do, for you people creating ratings -- is to maybe do it in iterations.

that is, now that you see what bets the WCP simulator is suggesting, go back to your ratings and see if there are any games involving those teams that the simulator suggests betting on, that upon further reflection you would change your prediicted score for.

and do that iterative tweaking of your ratings until you are satisfied and the recommendations are stable.

mouser:
i'm going to bet a few hundred dollars based on your guys' predictions -- and anyone else who publicly posts on this thread, so fame and fortune await you.  :up:

anodyne:
So has anyone made a complete set of ratings they feel good about and think are reasonable?  I ask because i'd like to place some bets using them.
-mouser (June 04, 2010, 03:07 PM)
--- End quote ---
My predictions are I think not bad; I revised them after my team (England) ended up doing rather better than I think they actually will, because of my bias when forecasting individual matchups.  The revisions IIRC involved forecasting rather better results for Spain & Argentina, and rather worse for England.

I would not wish to place too much credence on the forecasts for games between the weaker teams, especially when they have not met recently.  FIFA of course does this when they publish their rankings ... but IMO once you get below about the top 20, you're making it up ...

mouser:
It would be fascinating to do some sensitivity analysis on the data -- that is, to see how much differences in ratings affect the final predicted outcomes.
I suspect that changing around the scores of weak teams moderately wouldn't make much of a difference.
I could add a feature that increased the noise of weak teams.

anodyne:
It would be fascinating to do some sensitivity analysis on the data -- that is, to see how much differences in ratings affect the final predicted outcomes.
I suspect that changing around the scores of weak teams moderately wouldn't make much of a difference.
I could add a feature that increased the noise of weak teams.
-mouser (June 04, 2010, 10:33 PM)
--- End quote ---
Changing the forecast of results between weaker teams is not likely to change the predicted percentages for the top teams.  However, if the "best team to bet on" is e.g. 100-1 or 500-1, then changing the forecast for weaker teams could (obviously) change that statistic.

I think the predicted outcomes are in fact likely to be relatively sensitive to individual forecasts.  When I made my changes, I didn't have to change too many of the forecast results to end up with a noticeably different set of final percentages.

It would be interesting to use the so-called "Wisdom of Crowds" and average the individual forecasts for each pairing, and then use those averages to generate a set of percentages. You might have to allow fractional goals to do this of course ...

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