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FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010 - A Contest For Best Predictions?

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mouser:
you're right, it would make a lot of sense to combine votes of experts -- or look for the common recommended bets.  the real problem is that a site like DC doesn't get enough attention to bring in enough experts to make that worth while.

i'll tell you another idea that would make sense -- have the system observe which experts were correct after the first few games, and then weight their predictions more highly.  might give you a quick way to pick out a good set of candidate expert ratings.

mouser:
Slashdot has a story today about a simple contest to predict how far countries will go in the world cup:
http://science.slashdot.org/story/10/06/07/0640217/World-Cup-Forecasting-Challenge-For-Quants

With contest page here:
http://kaggle.com/worldcup2010?viewtype=summary

Now i know the first question you are asking yourself is how come after having this amazing online simulator up for two tournaments, slashdot could never be bothered to show any interest in it -- are they now doing a front page story on a trivial $200 contest to predict winners that is basically a one page "send in your predictions" form.  Well I don't have a good answer for you.

However, one interesting thing would be to add a feature to the simulator to have it output a set of predictions for this contest, just for fun.

mouser:
i've given up trying to place a bet.. just too difficult to do it online from USA.
any of you guys who used the simulator going to place actual bets?

Mikethomas:
This is pretty cool. I am going to get in on this. I just watched a little of Spain VS Germany. Spain is a great young team. I think they will do really well

tomos:
Five minutes to kick-off!

There's been a World Cup predicter here in germany of late:
Paul the octopus, "the Oracle of Oberhausen," has successfully predicted all six of Germany's World Cup matches so far -- after going four for five in the European Championships two years ago. No one knows how he does it, but for a while it made him the most popular invertebrate in Germany, stealing headlines even from the coalition government.

He "predicts" by choosing a mussel from one of two possible containers, both marked with national flags. On Tuesday he startled Germans by calling a Spanish upset. Most fans weren't terribly worried. Yes, the striker Thomas Müller was out on penalties; and sure, Spain had been strong. But ever since Brazil dropped out of contention the young German team looked swift and precise enough to clear a path to the championship.
--- End quote ---

http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,705324,00.html

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