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FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010

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mouser:
awesome work anodyne, can't wait to check out your scores.

because of the nature of the simulation, it is certainly calculating the predicted finalists, semi-finalists, and winners as it simulates millions of games, the only question would be how to display this info.. are we talking about just reporting the most likely finalists, semi-finalists, winners, or listing probablities of each team for each of these categories, or trying to look at betting payoffs for these bets?

anodyne:
because of the nature of the simulation, it is certainly calculating the predicted finalists, semi-finalists, and winners as it simulates millions of games, the only question would be how to display this info.. are we talking about just reporting the most likely finalists, semi-finalists, winners, or listing probablities of each team for each of these categories, or trying to look at betting payoffs for these bets?
-mouser (February 02, 2010, 06:01 PM)
--- End quote ---
The betting payoff is probably least interesting to me. Perhaps 3 columns in the ongoing display: probability of winning (as per now), probability of reaching the final, probability of reaching the semi-final. The probabilities in the second column of course will add up to 200%, in the third to 400%. But it's just a thought ...

ricardosf:
What is your prediction on the first opening game of WCP 2010, Shouth Africa vs Mexico? What is your scores prediction?

mouser:
the simulator doesn't make per-game predictions.. in fact it relies on a user to tell it how every possible per-game match up could result, and from that it calculates how the tournament would end.

mouser:
Nate Silver (political statistician) has done some recent work on predicting world cup 2010 results:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/world-cup-simulated-odds.html

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