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FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010

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mouser:
Thought I would start a new thread to discuss issues in the FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010 site/page.

We need experts to create some pairwise estimates of team matchup outcomes before the tool can be used for anything useful..

But If you want to get a feel for how this tool for calculating betting advice differs from a tool to predict the winner -- select the "Uniform Ratings" from expert ratings list, click Load, then Start the simulation.

What you should see over time is now every team equally likely to win the tournament.  Now look at the Expected Profit columns.  Red entries are expected profitable bets, the higher the better.  Note that Honduras is the highest expected payoff -- which makes sense since it's the team that has the highest payoff odds and we are assuming for this experiment that all teams are equally likely to win.

mouser:
Even if you're not interested in gambling or the world cup, I'm hoping some of you may find the discussion of markov chain monte carlo statistics/probability interesting.

There is a page now which can be used to help you get a feel for how the different probability function parameters actually relate to game scores, and i've extended it to show actual sample simulated game scores, so you can get a better feel for how the means and standard deviation parameters map to scores:

https://www.donationcoder.com/wcp/experthelp.php

mouser:
Just fixed a bug in the new 2010 version where it wasn't recognizing that you were a forum member.

anodyne:
Have entered my first thoughts on the scores.  Spain ends up doing rather better than the odds-makers think & England worse, though I'm not surprised at the latter; I suspect the reason England is 6.5:1 is the odds are from British bookies who have received a lot of sentimental backing ...

anodyne:
Some more thoughts ... it would be quite interesting to see what the predictions are for the finalists & the semi-finalists as well as for the eventual winner. How easy would it be to add that?

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