Thought I would start a new thread to discuss issues in the FIFA World Cup Predictor 2010 site/page.
We need experts to create some pairwise estimates of team matchup outcomes before the tool can be used for anything useful..
But If you want to get a feel for how this tool for calculating betting advice differs from a tool to predict the winner -- select the "Uniform Ratings" from expert ratings list, click Load, then Start the simulation.
What you should see over time is now every team equally likely to win the tournament. Now look at the Expected Profit columns. Red entries are expected profitable bets, the higher the better. Note that Honduras is the highest expected payoff -- which makes sense since it's the team that has the highest payoff odds and we are assuming for this experiment that all teams are equally likely to win.