Main Area and Open Discussion > General Software Discussion
Is the party over for Microsoft?
40hz:
Dvorak is so non-relevant anymore. Maybe 10-15 years ago he was someone worth listening to, but now he's just a struggling computer journalist like all the rest of them trying to put an exciting spin on non-exciting news so he won't get canned in the next round of staff cutbacks.
-Innuendo (July 28, 2009, 10:10 AM)
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That's the problem with being a commentator rather than the person who actually does things.
And yeah...JD is getting a little long in the tooth. Techno-ranting is just soooo 80's. ;D
I used to contrast Dvorak's PC Magazine blurb with Jerry Pournelle's Chaos Manor column in Byte Magazine. John Dvorak had a lot to say about a lot of things. Jerry Pournelle did too - but his comments were always based on technologies he and his son Alex were actually working with.
Then there's the personality differences.
Dvorak was always a somewhat sarcastic wiseass when he wasn't being "outraged" about something. Pournelle was invariably more civil and to the point in his commentaries. Dvorak always seemed to need to prove to everybody just how smart he is. Jerry Pournelle never seemed out to prove anything, despite holding graduate degrees in fields as diverse as: engineering, mathematics, psychology, and political science.
Guess whose column I preferred? 8)
MilesAhead:
I used to read the Chaos Manor column also. I forget who it was, but somebody did almost a Mad Magazine type spoof of the column where the "solution" to each problem using some software or gadget was to get the developer or inventor on the phone to talk him through it. Like, if he got BSOD he'd get Bill Gates on the phone to find out what's what with it. Pretty hilarious!!
I remember back then they were calling CD burners WORM drives for Write Once Read Many. I always wished I had the cash, and the type of PC so I could have one of those babies! Ah the nostalgia!! :) The spoof was over the top, but it did kind of make you think what a "regular user" who didn't happen to be a columnist had to do to fix the stuff. :)
40hz:
I forget who it was, but somebody did almost a Mad Magazine type spoof of the column where the "solution" to each problem using some software or gadget was to get the developer or inventor on the phone to talk him through it. Like, if he got BSOD he'd get Bill Gates on the phone to find out what's what with it. Pretty hilarious!!
-MilesAhead (July 28, 2009, 11:28 AM)
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ROFLMAO! (And not to far from the truth, BTW!)
zridling:
John Gruber has better revenue/stock/enthusiast details than Dvorak in his Daring Fireball's post, Microsoft’s Long, Slow Decline. It's long, so here is the gist:
* 91 percent of $1,000-and-higher retail computer sales now go to Apple.
* Microsoft’s quarterly financial results, in which revenue fell $1 billion short of projections and declined 17 percent year-over-year.
* To be clear, Microsoft remains a very profitable company. However, they have never before reported year-over-year declines like this, nor fallen so short of projected earnings. Something is awry.
* Microsoft’s operating system business is not new, and it has never been particularly cyclical. Windows revenue, prior to this just-completed quarter, has only ever gone in one direction: up.
* One argument is that the fault lies with the global economy, not Microsoft itself. However, Google is doing just fine, and Apple reported record non-holiday-quarter numbers for its just-ended quarter. Apple operates in the same economy Microsoft does, and Mac sales are up.
* Microsoft’s core problem is that they have lost the hearts of computer enthusiasts. They’re a software company whose primary platform no longer appeals to people who like computers the most. This is true in many markets with broad appeal, not just computers. Microsoft is looking ever more so like the digital equivalent of General Motors. Car enthusiasts lost interest in GM’s cars long before regular people did; the same is happening with Windows.
* No one seems to be arguing that Windows 7 is something that will tempt Mac users to switch, or to tempt even recent Mac converts to switch back. It doesn’t even seem to be in the realm of debate. But if Windows 7 is actually any good, why wouldn’t it tempt at least some segment of Mac users to switch? Windows 95, 98, and XP did.
* The PC Hunter ads, the PC Rookie ads clearly have been winners in the marketplace. Such winners in the marketplace that Apple’s laptop sales went up last quarter, and the rest of the industry’s declined.
* I’m not arguing that Microsoft will collapse. They’re too big, too established for that to happen. I simply think that their results this quarter were not an aberration, but rather the first fiscal evidence of a long, slow decline that began several years ago.
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Uh, wasn't this the same case against IBM back in 1984 with regard to Apple? The same Apple who, in the 90s, was gasping on its last legs when Microsoft threw $150mn their direction to stave off bankruptcy. With Apple, you pay twice the price for the privilege of being locked into not only software, but hardware. And with Apple's iPhone app censorship, I don't see the fun in being an Apple consumer. I don't dispute Apple's brute, specific code-to-hardware quality, just that merely bottom line profit does not measure quality user experience for Windows users.
Josh:
* 91 percent of $1,000-and-higher retail computer sales now go to Apple.
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The question here is: What is the percentage of sales of systems over 1000 dollars in the same time frame for microsofts decline in this measurement? Have more or fewer systems in that price range been sold?
* Microsoft’s quarterly financial results, in which revenue fell $1 billion short of projections and declined 17 percent year-over-year.
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Is this the Operating system division or the whole company?
* To be clear, Microsoft remains a very profitable company. However, they have never before reported year-over-year declines like this, nor fallen so short of projected earnings. Something is awry.
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While the profits might be less, how much more money was spent on R&D for new arenas microsoft is entering into? Microsoft has a huge R&D department and as such if they are spending more on new areas of development, I wouldn't consider the decline to be all that negative.
* Microsoft’s operating system business is not new, and it has never been particularly cyclical. Windows revenue, prior to this just-completed quarter, has only ever gone in one direction: up.
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Is this decline attributed to more users switching to MAC or other OSes or is it attributable to an overall economic decline?
* One argument is that the fault lies with the global economy, not Microsoft itself. However, Google is doing just fine, and Apple reported record non-holiday-quarter numbers for its just-ended quarter. Apple operates in the same economy Microsoft does, and Mac sales are up.
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The same question as I posted above comes into play here. How much has Apple's expenditure situation changed over this same timeframe? What types of projects is Apple, or Google for that matter, currently engaging in R&D for? Google I can see quite a bit for so the argument in this statement might hold true more-so for Google over Apple.
* Microsoft’s core problem is that they have lost the hearts of computer enthusiasts. They’re a software company whose primary platform no longer appeals to people who like computers the most. This is true in many markets with broad appeal, not just computers. Microsoft is looking ever more so like the digital equivalent of General Motors. Car enthusiasts lost interest in GM’s cars long before regular people did; the same is happening with Windows.
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The computer enthusiasts mentioned here are the ones who typically grew up when computers first began to take off. For that genre, they grew up with Windows as it matured and as such anything else other than Windows is a welcome change. The modern genre of computer user is being exposed to computers at a younger age and as such a much different set of computer software. The younger and newer computer enthusiast genre is being exposed to linux because it is no longer a thing of just the "hacker" or "geek". linux is becoming easier to use. Apple is also in this same boat. Microsoft and the "typical" PC platform took off early because of the ability to operate on a variety of platforms (originally IBM's 80286-80486 platform, but more so the new intel IBM-Compatible platforms). Apple remained proprietary for most of it's early career. It was only recently that they moved from the PowerPC architecture to the x86 and Intel platform with the release of OSX and the switch to Darwin/*nix. With that change, Apple has had ample oppurtunity to expose a whole new genre of users to it's technologies. Thus people are now open for something new or in the case of the newer computer user just another option (in addition to *nix, solaris, osx, windows, etc). I really don't think that it is so much they lost the heart of computer enthusiasts so much as the newer generation is simply being exposed to more than just Windows and is learning more. Does this mean Microsoft will go away anytime soon? Not likely, but it does mean Microsoft has to work harder now to innovate and come up with ideas.
* No one seems to be arguing that Windows 7 is something that will tempt Mac users to switch, or to tempt even recent Mac converts to switch back. It doesn’t even seem to be in the realm of debate. But if Windows 7 is actually any good, why wouldn’t it tempt at least some segment of Mac users to switch? Windows 95, 98, and XP did.
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Why would Mac users switch from something that works? Is Microsoft trying to make users buy a whole new computer just because a new OS works? Or is it trying to give the existing users what they want. I would not buy a new computer simply because of Windows 7. I would not swap from a system I know and love just for the sake of swapping. Will some switch? Sure. Will a lot of them? Not likely because what they have already works.
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