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Is the party over for Microsoft?

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zridling:


Although the demise of Microsoft has been written about often, John Dvorak makes the case that the Microsoft's decade of attention deficit disorder has been a mess for consumers and bad news for investors:


* Years ago in the pre-Internet era, AOL was the talk of the town, so Microsoft had to copy it with MSN. No money was made; no strategic advantage was gained.
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* Netscape was the rage for a while, so Microsoft threw together a browser and got in that business. The browser was given away for free. No money was made; the strategy got the company in trouble with government trustbusters.
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* During the early days of the Internet, new online publications appeared. Microsoft decided to become a publisher too, rolling out a slew of online properties including a computer magazine and a women's magazine. They were all folded.  
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* Computer books became popular; Microsoft began Microsoft Press. After an early splash and success, the company soon lost interest and the division now languishes.
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* Teddy Ruxpin became a hot toy. Microsoft rolled out a couple of robotic plush toys, including the creepy Barney the Dinosaur who sang "I love you and you love me." The company soon lost interest and dropped the whole thing.  
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* AOL-TV appeared, along with other device-centric TV-delivery mechanisms in the 1990s. Microsoft created a Microsoft-TV division as well as a device. It soon lost interest.  
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* Adobe Photoshop became a huge success, so Microsoft hired Alvy Ray Smith to develop photo-editing software. Smith quit when the company lost interest in the idea.
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* Yahoo and Google showed that a search engine could be a money maker, so Microsoft copied that idea; it now has Bing.  
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* Cloud applications are currently trendy, along with notions about software as a service. Microsoft decides to go into that business.
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* The Apple rolled out a MP3 player, the iPod. Microsoft came up with its own MP3 player, the Zune. The company also says it wants to stream music.
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* Now Microsoft wants to open retail stores, all of them next to or near an Apple store.
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Part of this is attributable to the sheer size of corporations these days; they have a finger in diverse industries, not the one they started with. For example, how would one define Google -- as a search engine, a media company, a software developer, or advertising medium? You might also say that Dvorak is playing the "Damn if you do, damned if you don't" game with Microsoft here. Yet, compared to Apple's focus on iPhone/iPod/iTablet, i.e., a gadget company, Microsoft is all over the map.

After the success of Win7, where does Microsoft go -- back to software, or to what should it turn its focus?

MilesAhead:
Hmmmmm, maybe MS should find a small company to do nothing but write an operating system?  The trick worked for IBM. Where is Gary Killdall when you need him?  :)

Josh:
How many more of these "Is this the end of microsoft" articles are we going to see? I swear, a new one pops up every week. I also expect to see another "Is this finally the year linux takes over the desktop market?" thread any day now.

MilesAhead:
How many more of these "Is this the end of microsoft" articles are we going to see? I swear, a new one pops up every week. I also expect to see another "Is this finally the year linux takes over the desktop market?" thread any day now.
-Josh (July 26, 2009, 12:03 PM)
--- End quote ---

I think Dvorak has one of those pinwheels with the paper-holder spring clips on his desk.  Just rotate and the topic he wrote about 12 years ago is "new" again. :)

Even if it gets bloated, it's tough for Windows to become obsolete as long as CPU power and cheap storage keeps exploding.  It will take a new age of dear resources to kill it off. Right now a desktop icon for my application is close to the size of total main memory when I got my first Dos 3.1 XT compatible.

40hz:
Hmmmmm, maybe MS should find a small company to do nothing but write an operating system?  The trick worked for IBM. Where is Gary Killdall when you need him?  :)
-MilesAhead (July 26, 2009, 11:54 AM)
--- End quote ---

Why bother writing anything? Just grab a copy of FreeBSD, wrap a proprietary front end around it, add a few nifty apps (with plenty of eye candy), apply for patents on everything you can possibly think of, and call it a day.

It worked for Apple. ;D

(BTW: If they did, it wouldn't be the first time. Isn't that how Microsoft "created" PC and MS-DOS. They bought it from Seattle Computer Products.)

How many more of these "Is this the end of microsoft" articles are we going to see? I swear, a new one pops up every week. I also expect to see another "Is this finally the year linux takes over the desktop market?" thread any day now.
-Josh (July 26, 2009, 12:03 PM)
--- End quote ---

I'd have to agree with Josh. The only way Microsoft is going to go away is if you get rid of every attorney in the country. Because once it starts getting obvious people are no longer willing to buy an OS, Microsoft's legal people will do everything possible to outlaw all the alternatives.

Look at the FUD surrounding all the "infringing" technologies that Ballmer keeps talking about. Do you think he's making idle threats regardless of whether or not there's any merit to Microsoft's claims? Look at SCO.

SCO is still fighting a battle to claim infringement on something the courts have already ruled SCO doesn't own! Why the judges haven't shut that case down yet is anybody's guess.

If Microsoft feels the need, they can tie the entire market up in court for years. Once they start feeling the pinch, expect the gloves to come off and the patent lawsuits to commence.

It's only a matter of time. :tellme:

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